tgo Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) Edited August 23, 2019 by tgo Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) Politico survey this morning disputes the notion the dem candidate doesnt matter. Basically it says only Biden and Sanders are currently projected to beat trump. Also I would ask begoode and prag to read the last paragraph of the article they keep touting. Edited August 23, 2019 by oldschool Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
begooode Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, oldschool said: Politico survey this morning disputes the notion the dem candidate doesnt matter. Basically it says only Biden and Sanders are currently projected to beat trump. Also I would ask begoode and prag to read the last paragraph of the article they keep touting. Biden and Sanders are the only ones who can beat Trump — yet they are 100% opposed to each other on ideologies and policies,... sounds like a contradiction and seems to reinforce the anybody but Trump sentiment, imo. which article? OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justafan Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 1 hour ago, oldschool said: Politico survey this morning disputes the notion the dem candidate doesnt matter. Basically it says only Biden and Sanders are currently projected to beat trump. Also I would ask begoode and prag to read the last paragraph of the article they keep touting. Makes sense. Biden has name recognition and Bernie gets credit for his agenda even if others have copied him. He inspires way more excitement on a larger scale and has a loyal base of support. Personally, I still think Biden wins and all that really matters is how motivated democratic voters really are to be rid of Trump. They have the votes if they aren't complacent again but they aren't unified and there will be resentment no matter who wins the nomination. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 1 hour ago, begooode said: Biden and Sanders are the only ones who can beat Trump — yet they are 100% opposed to each other on ideologies and policies,... sounds like a contradiction and seems to reinforce the anybody but Trump sentiment, imo. which article? Makes perfect sense. They are the old white males in the race and many are used to them being in power. Your model you keep referring to. Read her last paragraph. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
begooode Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, oldschool said: Makes perfect sense. They are the old white males in the race and many are used to them being in power. Your model you keep referring to. Read her last paragraph. No it doesn’t, esp with the age of these guys waaay past anything recently. And it’s amazing how low the analytical bar is for easily produced and consumed ‘conventional wisdom’. Looks like standard caveats in the last paragraph ,... I will be refining my predictions over the course of the general election as more data, including data on candidate and campaign quality become available. In marginal races I will be examining the electoral strategies deployed by candidates in specific races and how they might impact results and will share those insights here. It should also be noted that the predictions offered here are based on the assumption that Donald Trump will be president on November 6th 2018, no major national security events occur between now and Election Day, and that Democrats successfully exploit their advantages. Stay tuned! http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2018/09/26-signs-democrats-win-big/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, begooode said: No it doesn’t, esp with the age of these guys waaay past anything recently. And it’s amazing how low the analytical bar is for easily produced and consumed ‘conventional wisdom’. Looks like standard caveats in the last paragraph ,... I will be refining my predictions over the course of the general election as more data, including data on candidate and campaign quality become available. In marginal races I will be examining the electoral strategies deployed by candidates in specific races and how they might impact results and will share those insights here. It should also be noted that the predictions offered here are based on the assumption that Donald Trump will be president on November 6th 2018, no major national security events occur between now and Election Day, and that Democrats successfully exploit their advantages. Stay tuned! http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2018/09/26-signs-democrats-win-big/ You give the average person way too much credit. Most people are used to old white men running things. Its not hard to infer why Biden and Sanders consistently poll 1 and 2 among those who don't feel strongly about a particular candidate. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
begooode Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 28 minutes ago, oldschool said: You give the average person way too much credit. Most people are used to old white men running things. Its not hard to infer why Biden and Sanders consistently poll 1 and 2 among those who don't feel strongly about a particular candidate. Good point, we should look at a simpler algorithm, preferably one that’s been tested. Like the one we’ve been discussing: Dems outnumber repubs even in many critical states, and Trump has reduced that number Independents are fleeing from Trump in disgust Get dems + independents to turn out. Get them excited. Hat tip to Trump Profit Yesterday you derided early polling as unreliable, but now it’s worthy of a reference because we all like 78 yr white guys as noobie presidents. Okay. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 47 minutes ago, begooode said: Good point, we should look at a simpler algorithm, preferably one that’s been tested. Like the one we’ve been discussing: Dems outnumber repubs even in many critical states, and Trump has reduced that number Independents are fleeing from Trump in disgust Get dems + independents to turn out. Get them excited. Hat tip to Trump Profit Yesterday you derided early polling as unreliable, but now it’s worthy of a reference because we all like 78 yr white guys as noobie presidents. Okay. I was referring to why Biden and Sanders would be 1 and 2 among lots of voters despite the differences between the two candidates. I'm not interested in rehashing the previous discussion as you see what you want to see and sought out a model that confirmed your bias. The author of the model spends thousands of words explaining why her model is impregnable then closes with the mother of all caveats. begooode 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
WG53 Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 3 hours ago, begooode said: Biden and Sanders are the only ones who can beat Trump — yet they are 100% opposed to each other on ideologies and policies,... sounds like a contradiction and seems to reinforce the anybody but Trump sentiment, imo. which article? I call bullshit on Biden being able to beat Trump. Sanders sure. Biden? HAHAHAHA Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
begooode Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, oldschool said: I was referring to why Biden and Sanders would be 1 and 2 among lots of voters despite the differences between the two candidates. I'm not interested in rehashing the previous discussion as you see what you want to see and sought out a model that confirmed your bias. The author of the model spends thousands of words explaining why her model is impregnable then closes with the mother of all caveats. Hilarious. I have no confirmation bias, other than doubting parroted conventional wisdom ‘electabiliy’ that has failed too often to be taken seriously. But you summarily dismiss 40 of 42 real results to find an out clause on standard caveat language — forget all that real success and look at the last paragraph!! Plus, your real winner: People prefer old white guys. LOFL. But I have bias,... Just stop already. Edited August 24, 2019 by begooode Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
begooode Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, WG53 said: I call bullshit on Biden being able to beat Trump. Sanders sure. Biden? HAHAHAHA I was rephrasing oldschools reference. I’m not sure, i just hope the dems find the nominee who will excite the base the most and get Trump gone. Right now it looks like Biden, but he has work to do. Edited August 24, 2019 by begooode Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
WG53 Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, begooode said: I was rephrasing oldschools reference. I’m not sure, i just hope the dems find the nominee who will excite the base the most and get Trump gone. Right now it looks like Biden, but he has work to do. Fair enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 28 minutes ago, begooode said: Hilarious. I have no confirmation bias, other than doubting parroted conventional wisdom ‘electabiliy’ that has failed too often to be taken seriously. But you summarily dismiss 40 of 42 real results to find an out clause on standard caveat language — forget all that real success and look at the last paragraph!! Plus, your real winner: People prefer old white guys. LOFL. But I have bias,... Just stop already. its called human psychology. We prefer things that are comfortable and that holds more true the less intelligent one is. Look it up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, begooode said: I was rephrasing oldschools reference. I’m not sure, i just hope the dems find the nominee who will excite the base the most and get Trump gone. Right now it looks like Biden, but he has work to do. you can ignore wg53 on politics. he's just another angry millennial who doesn't understand the electorate. Biden doesn't excite anyone but he appeals to the moderates in swing state like no other candidate. I actually think Sanders would lose to Trump. There are too many dumb rednecks who would bow to an all out assault on Sanders being a socialist; I worry about Warren falling prey to the same right wing fake news blitz. Biden is immune to to such tactics for better or worse. His weakness is excitability and whether the lack of it will overtake his electability argument. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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