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BudAdams

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1 minute ago, Soxcat said:

People always make comments like the Davis pick was high as if we had the option to drop down 10 picks and still get him.  He is obviously the best of the top WRs that went in that draft.  You can always find some other player that might have been a better selection but we were desperate for a WR.  A huge need.  Not like Davis is a bust (like Ross) either.  If the kid stayed healthy and played with a better than average QB he would be lighting it up. 

 

 

Which is part of my point. Jrob is just now getting to the point where he can draft BPA. He's been cleaning up an absolute laughing stock for his entire run. 

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BudAdams   
1 hour ago, Soxcat said:

People always make comments like the Davis pick was high as if we had the option to drop down 10 picks and still get him.  He is obviously the best of the top WRs that went in that draft.  You can always find some other player that might have been a better selection but we were desperate for a WR.  A huge need.  Not like Davis is a bust (like Ross) either.  If the kid stayed healthy and played with a better than average QB he would be lighting it up. 

OK but that's not becoming of a great GM IMO.  Other teams find big time WR's without being a top 5 pick.  Smith-Shuster went 52 in the same draft and he's better than Davis. 

 

Michael Thomas went 47th in 2016.  Stephon Diggs was a 5th rounder in 2015 (they actually picked our TE Pruitt earlier).  AB was a 6th rounder.  I like Davis and think he's a good player but I don't think was worthy of 5.   

 

Regardless, I think Jackson at 18 is a much worse looking pick.  Not to mention they didn't have a 2nd rounder that year because they traded it in the Conklin trade up.

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abc2330   
3 hours ago, BudAdams said:

OK but that's not becoming of a great GM IMO.  Other teams find big time WR's without being a top 5 pick.  Smith-Shuster went 52 in the same draft and he's better than Davis. 

 

Michael Thomas went 47th in 2016.  Stephon Diggs was a 5th rounder in 2015 (they actually picked our TE Pruitt earlier).  AB was a 6th rounder.  I like Davis and think he's a good player but I don't think was worthy of 5.   

 

Regardless, I think Jackson at 18 is a much worse looking pick.  Not to mention they didn't have a 2nd rounder that year because they traded it in the Conklin trade up.

Diggs has had one 1,000 yard season.  Barely.  And what do Juju and Thomas have in common?  They have HOF QBs.  One played across from a HOF  receiver, the other has arguably the best offensive mind in league history.  

 

Davis was drafted at #5 because he's special.  Are Thomas and Juju special?  I'm not seeing it.  They are good, but their production is no doubt elevated by extremely favorable circumstances.  Davis averaged more separation per Target than both, and also has a length advantage on both.  Needless to say, there was a lot of production left on the field compared to if he were under better circumstances, IMO.

 

Davis can't control his QB situation.  What he can control is his run blocking ability, which several claim is as good as anyone in the league.  I personally believe if circumstances surrounding him improve so that he can reach his potential, we will be able to say the same about the other aspects of his game.

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BudAdams   

I like Davis don’t get me wrong and think he suffers from the QB play.  At the same time, it’s proven time and time again that you can find productive receivers beyond the top 5.  

 

From a strategic way to build a team, I do think one can question a number of Robinson’s decisions in how he went around it.  Of course, a lot was done to coddle and work around the limitations of the “franchise” QB he inherited.

 

If I wanted to be a jerk, I’d point out that they could have drafted Mahomes at 5 and  Ju Ju at 52 if he would not have traded that pick to get Conklin who is a failure if he doesn’t get a second contract here.

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abc2330   
7 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

I like Davis don’t get me wrong and think he suffers from the QB play.  At the same time, it’s proven time and time again that you can find productive receivers beyond the top 5.  

 

From a strategic way to build a team, I do think one can question a number of Robinson’s decisions in how he went around it.  Of course, a lot was done to coddle and work around the limitations of the “franchise” QB he inherited.

 

If I wanted to be a jerk, I’d point out that they could have drafted Mahomes at 5 and  Ju Ju at 52 if he would not have traded that pick to get Conklin who is a failure if he doesn’t get a second contract here.

That's a pretty terrible comparison, tbh.  NO and Pittsburgh have had their offenses set for the better part of a decade, or longer.  They can afford to sit around and select a WR in the second , their offense will be good regardless.  The cupboard was completely bare for us, our best offensive player was getting up there in age, we had to get a #1 WR.  #5 is earlier than I'd like, but you do what you have to do.  

 

Likewise, we couldn't sit on our hands as far as addressing the line was concerned.  We had to get better.  The health of the QB and the jobs of everyone in the organization depended on it.  Got a problem with that?  Take it up with AAS .  Not the GM. His hands were tied.

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BudAdams   

I’m not disputing that Robinson was mandated with surrounding Mariota with a better OL and skill position players.  Saying that, he could have accomplished the end goal differently.

 

As for WR, one of the best units is in Minnesota with Diggs and Theilen, who did fine with the likes of Bradford and Keenum.  Look at Russell Wilson’s skill players.  You can even get good WRs throughout the draft and even as UDFA like Doug Baldwin or Adam Humphries....

 

I think Robinson has done a decent job as GM.  Saying that, he needs a strong draft and these big money FA acquisitions to pan out.  Miss the playoffs again and he’ll have a lot of pressure on him in 2020 IMO.

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abc2330   
32 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

I’m not disputing that Robinson was mandated with surrounding Mariota with a better OL and skill position players.  Saying that, he could have accomplished the end goal differently.

 

As for WR, one of the best units is in Minnesota with Diggs and Theilen, who did fine with the likes of Bradford and Keenum.  Look at Russell Wilson’s skill players.  You can even get good WRs throughout the draft and even as UDFA like Doug Baldwin or Adam Humphries....

 

I think Robinson has done a decent job as GM.  Saying that, he needs a strong draft and these big money FA acquisitions to pan out.  Miss the playoffs again and he’ll have a lot of pressure on him in 2020 IMO.

You do realize that Robison pounded the table for Humphries in the first place, right?

 

Anyway, your point about being able to get a WR after the first round applies to every position.  We got an All Pro safety in the third, and a Hell of a ILB in the 5th.  We may have ourselves a great OLB that we got on the second.  Very coveted position who teams often take in the first.  It's about selecting the right players, not about sticking to an outdated philosophy while WRs are becoming more important and valuable than ever .  

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nine   

It's easy to cherry-pick mid/late round picks (or UDFAs) as proof that talented players are available....but the fact is, the odds of hitting on one fall off dramatically in later rounds.

 

Just as a random, arbitrary example:  Taywan Taylor was the second WR drafted in round 3 of 2017.    Six WRs were drafted after him in that round.

 

For the sake of comparison, here's every WR selected in the 3rd round that year, their draft slot, and what they've done in their first two seasons.   

 

#69 Cooper Kupp (Rams):  102 rec, 1435 yds,  11 TD

#72  Taywan Taylor  (Titans):  53 rec,  697 yds, 2 TD

#79  Ardarius Stewart (Jets):   6 rec, 82 yards;  cut by three teams in 2018

#82 Carlos Henderson  (Broncos):  0 career appearances.  Currently out of football.

#84 Chris Godwin (Buccaneers):  93 rec, 1367 yards,  8 TD

#96  Kenny Golladay (Lions):   98 rec, 1540 yards,  8 TD 

#98 Chad Williams (Cardinals):  20 rec, 202 yards, 1 TD

#106 Amara Darboh  (Seahawks):   8 rec, 71 yards;  cut in Sept. 2018 

 

Of the eight WRs selected in round 3, three (Cupp, Godwin, Golladay) have turned into starting-caliber WRs.   One (Taylor) has put up numbers commensurate to a #3 WR.   Three of the four remaining players failed to make an NFL roster in year 2.   Even in round three, it's a very hit-and-miss proposition...and it only gets worse after that.

 

Here's a list of every WR drafted since 1967.    Just start at the top and go down the list;   you'll occasionally find a quality player taken in the mid/late rounds..but they're few and far between.    It's easy to overlook or forget that the majority end up disappearing within a couple years....because they simply disappear.

 

 http://theredzone.org/DraftShowPosition/Position/WR

 

 

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Thrill   
11 hours ago, BudAdams said:

No he didn't.  He never signed either of them to massive deals

 

In mid-year, 2012, he traded a 2013 4th rounder for Talib and a 2013 7th round pick and then signed him to a one year deal in 2013 for 4.5 M.  Talib left to sign his big deal in Denver in 2014 on a 6 year 57 M deal.

 

TB released Revis from his 6 year 90 M deal in March 2014.  NE signed him for 1 year 12 M.  The next year he signed with the Jets again on a 5 year 70 M deal.

 

 

All I’m saying is our deal with Wake is basically a one year deal so paying him 10 mil for one year isn’t a big deal. Sure he’s not Revis but he’s still very talented. 

 

NE doesn’t overpay guys because they’re smart with their money. It’s because kraft is to busy running a prosititution ring to pay his players well.

 

that only works as long as they have TB12 and BB. We don’t have that, so we have to pay more for guys to come play here. Which is evident by the money we shelled out to get Humphries. 

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BudAdams   

The average NFL career is like 2 or 3 years anyway.  Guys come and go.  I’d look at it a different way.  Check the receiving lists and see when guys were picked.  The leaders in recent years are not all first round picks.

 

Selecting players is an inexact science but history shows you can find receivers all over the place

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BudAdams   
4 minutes ago, Thrill said:

All I’m saying is our deal with Wake is basically a one year deal so paying him 10 mil for one year isn’t a big deal. Sure he’s not Revis but he’s still very talented. 

 

NE doesn’t overpay guys because they’re smart with their money. It’s because kraft is to busy running a prosititution ring to pay his players well.

 

that only works as long as they have TB12 and BB. We don’t have that, so we have to pay more for guys to come play here. Which is evident by the money we shelled out to get Humphries. 

NE doesn’t overpay because they manipulate the system by accumulating lots of picks through trades and free agency compensatory rules.  They buy low and sell high.  If you are at or above market, they’ll find a replacement.  It works because they also have superior coaching.  They get more out of guys there than others get out of the sane players time and time again.

 

Belichick would never have done the deals we gave Ryan, Butler, and Lewis.  Never.  He just finds replacements at the value he sets for the position.  

 

The fact he wanted Humphries makes me confident that he’ll bring it as long as Mariota gives him opportunities.

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OILERMAN   

If you have a top QB then you can be more passive in free agency. Smaller problems can easily be covered up. Brady won the SB with his 3rd LT etc......

 

When you're having to carry the QB(most teams) the roster has to be stronger

 

You know what I mean?

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japan   
21 hours ago, BudAdams said:

OK but that's not becoming of a great GM IMO.  Other teams find big time WR's without being a top 5 pick.  Smith-Shuster went 52 in the same draft and he's better than Davis. 

 

Michael Thomas went 47th in 2016.  Stephon Diggs was a 5th rounder in 2015 (they actually picked our TE Pruitt earlier).  AB was a 6th rounder.  I like Davis and think he's a good player but I don't think was worthy of 5.   

 

Regardless, I think Jackson at 18 is a much worse looking pick.  Not to mention they didn't have a 2nd rounder that year because they traded it in the Conklin trade up.

Michael Thomas has Drew Brees.

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