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BudAdams

FA Frenzy

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BudAdams   

Free Agency is exciting and I think the league is evolving in terms of more trading albeit it always seems to be precipitated by a player wanting a new deal because he's not a free agent.

 

Saying that, the really good teams tend to sit out the crazy money phase of FA and add elements at reasonable costs and use their cap space to retain their own - provided they draft well enough to where they have players worth 2nd and 3rd contracts.  To a certain extent, being a big time player in FA is an indictment of sorts in drafting.  The fact that guys like Tretola and Levin did not develop into contenders to start so you have to go sign Safford and Kline is a concern.  Drafting Smith to replace Walker and then extending Walker - same thing.  Drafting Adoree Jackson yet throwing big money at Ryan and Butler. 

 

Robinson inherited a shitty roster and he's done a solid job patching holes as Webster was absolutely horrid (of course he ,missed at G horribly with Warmack and Levitre).  At the same time, they need to draft better IMO to avoid having to buy a solution at premium prices as opposed to cheaper, home grown solutions.  In 2018, he came away with 3 picks that made the team.  Yes - Evans and Landry look to be long term starters but he's got to come away with a better ROI this year.

 

And saying all of that, everything hinges on Mariota.  If they get healthy, good Marcus, they can be a 10-12 win team.  If he's what he has been to this point, they are decidedly mediocre in a division where all of the teams are good.  The moves made are fine but are they enough to overtake the Colts or Texans?  IDK

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I wouldn't be surprised if the plan is to transition to not acquiring FAs that count against comp picks in the next ~1-2 years once the roster is fully overhauled from the 2016 baseline. Then we can pick and choose who to keep/let go and rack up comp picks like the Pats. This obviously requires excellent roster management and talent development/acquisition.

 

TBD how it plays out. If we continue to add 3-4 players in the first wave of FA, that eventually means that we are not getting something else correct often enough...

 

 

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Nash   

Chance Warmack was a disappointment, as was Kevin Dodd... on the other side, Levin, Finch, Pruitt /Firkser, and maybe Stinnie, represent finds among the undrafted and lower rounds that could be solid players, not stars

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Wrong. 

 

Jrob has a 2 step approach to fixing problems, as most successful managers of literally anything....do. That's why you see the redundancy. Not only do players often perform differently when they experience drastic change (new team, new life,) but they also get hurt. So if you have a sore spot on the team, it's a good idea to have that 2 prong approach to mending it. 

 

If you're trying to knock his drafts, you won't find much evidence to support your argument. 

 

In this draft, I count 2 players that have underperformed expectations (AJ and Dodd.) I'm not counting Conklin because he came overattained out the gate and had setbacks after injury. Kevin Byard is a first round pick in hindsight. How many picks does it take to move up from 3rd to 1st round?

image.png.e5a60ea8c3ca8df5d6f260888c5e0e63.png

 

Again, yeah maybe Corey wasn't deserving of a top 5, but he's showing he has 1st round talent after battling injury early. Adoree looks like a solid corner. Brown looks more like a 2nd rounder every day, but we got him in the 5th. Once again, we've gotten a ton of value from this draft in depth. 

 

image.png.9e49d24cd7195f24ddaa9527fdd1c788.png

 

Once again, we have 2 guys showing why they were picked where they were. Landry showed he can be a star with the amount of pressure he generated last year. He's in the Pro Bowl this year. Evans might surprise you too. Other guys, performed about as expected. 

 

image.png.0df9d9e99c654f8d3ebf1e5f5bdac460.png

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BudAdams   

I think he's drafted OK - certainly not horrible but not crazy great either.  Certainly Byard was a great pick value wise and it looks like Jayon Brown and Landry could be as well.  That said, he traded an awful lot to move up for Conklin, who's been up and down and hurt, Dodd was a bust, and I think most people agree that Davis and Jackson were drafted higher than they would be today in a re-do.  Jonnu Smith should have made Delanie Walker expendable.  Jackson and Sims ideally mean you don't pay big contracts to Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler.  Tons of people on here are not high on Taywan Taylor and Sharpe yet they just signed a FA WR for $ 9 M per year. 

 

He's worlds better than Webster but he was among the worst GM's to ever run an NFL team.  Still, the fact that we are in year 4 of Robinson and still spending premium money on FA veterans rather than extending our own is concerning.  The consistently good teams do not do this because they primarily draft and groom their own solutions.

 

 

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Soxcat   

Yea Conklin being an all-pro was a real bad thing until he ripped his knee at the end of 2017 and tried to come back too soon.

As for Davis he is better than the other two WR picked right after him and looks to be at minimum a solid player.

Jackson is good as well.  Sure 20-20 maybe you take White.  Jackson is not a bad player.

Smith will be fine as well.  First of all expecting him to make a TE as good as Delanie expendable is ridiculous.  He played at a small school and was really starting to play well before he got hurt.  He may still take over for Walker. 

Sharpe and Taylor (who was also starting to look pretty good last year) look more fitted to the outside.  We paid for a WR who specializes in the slot.

The shit storm Robinson was handed and what he has done is phenomenal.  No he isn't perfect but nobody is.

Logan Ryan has been one of our BEST FA signings.  Butler played better near the end of the year and is still a question mark.  Sims hasn't taken the next step so while he has shown flashes he isn't quite there yet. 

 

 

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BudAdams   
20 hours ago, SleepingTitan said:

Wrong. 

 

Jrob has a 2 step approach to fixing problems, as most successful managers of literally anything....do. That's why you see the redundancy. Not only do players often perform differently when they experience drastic change (new team, new life,) but they also get hurt. So if you have a sore spot on the team, it's a good idea to have that 2 prong approach to mending it. 

 

If you're trying to knock his drafts, you won't find much evidence to support your argument. 

 

In this draft, I count 2 players that have underperformed expectations (AJ and Dodd.) I'm not counting Conklin because he came overattained out the gate and had setbacks after injury. Kevin Byard is a first round pick in hindsight. How many picks does it take to move up from 3rd to 1st round?

image.png.e5a60ea8c3ca8df5d6f260888c5e0e63.png

 

Again, yeah maybe Corey wasn't deserving of a top 5, but he's showing he has 1st round talent after battling injury early. Adoree looks like a solid corner. Brown looks more like a 2nd rounder every day, but we got him in the 5th. Once again, we've gotten a ton of value from this draft in depth. 

 

image.png.9e49d24cd7195f24ddaa9527fdd1c788.png

 

Once again, we have 2 guys showing why they were picked where they were. Landry showed he can be a star with the amount of pressure he generated last year. He's in the Pro Bowl this year. Evans might surprise you too. Other guys, performed about as expected. 

 

image.png.0df9d9e99c654f8d3ebf1e5f5bdac460.png

I've already said he's done way better than Webster did but that doesn't mean he's done great by any means.  I'd say B- grade wise.  Remember, Robinson did come into about as good a situation as you can as a GM in terms of draft capital (#1 pick) while having a Pro Bowl LT in year 2 and the presumed franchise QB in year 2.  Granted, Mariota has failed to live up to expectations to this point so that hurts but at the same time JRob has shit the bed in terms of having a viable alternative.

 

I look at it from a standpoint that day 1/2 picks (rounds 1-3) should get you long term starters to fill needs and certainly top 10 picks should be elite players.  The fact that we consistently are going into unrestricted FA to fill needs at these positions tells me all I need to know about the actual success rate. 

 

The ROI from the Goff trade is questionable given the picks he gave back up in the trade up to get Conklin, who is a question mark as a long term solution.  Dodd was an outright bust.  Johnson is an OK player.  Henry has looked great at times but also has disappointed plenty too.  The jury is out and his inability to ne a 3 down back is an issue.  Byard - great pick and clearly a long term star player.

 

I like Davis but I do think 5 was somewhat high for him and I'm not sure production from him isn't more a result of the offense/QB play.  Jackson to be is just a guy - solid player and the playmaking ST add he supposedly brought is laughable.  He's awful as a returner in terms of decision making.  Taylor has shown promise as a WR but he's got question marks as a starter.  Jonnu Smith was drafted to replace Walker - same type of skill set.  He's been up and down and injured too. 

 

The jury is still out for 2018.  Evans finished strong after being AWOL early on and Landry flashed.  Saying that, coming away with 4 picks in a draft is just poor strategically.

 

The Patriot model, which was the appeal of hiring Robinson, is pretty simple.  You draft and coach well, don't over pay players that are replaceable (if you draft well), manipulate the draft compensatory system and use trades to accumulate more picks, buy low on players and sell high, and use FA as a tool to fill holes in the second or third waves of FA where the ROI can work.

 

The perennially good teams even beyond NE don't play much in free agency's first wave.  They are too busy retaining their own good players and working the draft to keep the pipeline going. 

 

Winning the offseason means nothing.  Winning in the postseason does.

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Thrill   

Didn’t belichick give a huge contract to Revis and trade for Aqib Talib the year they won a Super Bowl. Man! What an idictment of belichicks managerial ability that he had to trade for and sign 2 cbs! 

 

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19 minutes ago, Thrill said:

Didn’t belichick give a huge contract to Revis and trade for Aqib Talib the year they won a Super Bowl. Man! What an idictment of belichicks managerial ability that he had to trade for and sign 2 cbs! 

 

Yeah what kind of dumbass has a secondary issue and wastes all those resources on 1 position? what a buffoon!

Edited by SleepingTitan

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BudAdams   
18 minutes ago, Thrill said:

Didn’t belichick give a huge contract to Revis and trade for Aqib Talib the year they won a Super Bowl. Man! What an idictment of belichicks managerial ability that he had to trade for and sign 2 cbs! 

 

No he didn't.  He never signed either of them to massive deals

 

In mid-year, 2012, he traded a 2013 4th rounder for Talib and a 2013 7th round pick and then signed him to a one year deal in 2013 for 4.5 M.  Talib left to sign his big deal in Denver in 2014 on a 6 year 57 M deal.

 

TB released Revis from his 6 year 90 M deal in March 2014.  NE signed him for 1 year 12 M.  The next year he signed with the Jets again on a 5 year 70 M deal.

 

 

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BudAdams   

BB basically bought Talib cheap for two years in his prime and then replaced him for Revis for one year at market price before Revis fell off the cliff. 

 

 

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Soxcat   

People always make comments like the Davis pick was high as if we had the option to drop down 10 picks and still get him.  He is obviously the best of the top WRs that went in that draft.  You can always find some other player that might have been a better selection but we were desperate for a WR.  A huge need.  Not like Davis is a bust (like Ross) either.  If the kid stayed healthy and played with a better than average QB he would be lighting it up. 

 

 

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About Jrob. This team is literally 99% Jrob now. What, like 3 players from Webster? That was 5 years ago man. What other GM has had to completely assemble a team? Do you realize how difficult it is to be hamstrung by weaknesses? It's not like he picked BPA every year. He had to get incredibly creative to draft and recruit talent in FA. He did it thru sly deals, trades, and the relationships he's built over the years. 

 

Who the fuck else goes to Middle Tennessee State University to check out a safety? Who else is desperate for a RB and pulls off Murray? He fixed our line by shipping dead weight (DGB.) He was obviously right too, cause DGB is flipping burgers now.

 

Let Nelson tear his ACL and Luck break his tibia and then come holler at me when the Colts go 9-7 the very next season. 

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