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Trade War - how is that working out?

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MadMax   
6 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

Trump Seeks New $15 Billion Subsidy To Protect Farmers From His Own Trade War

 

The president falsely claims that tariffs are paid "directly" to the U.S. Treasury by China and indicates these nonexistent Chinese funds will cover the subsidy cost.

I can't wait to see how the retards spin this.

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3 hours ago, chef said:

Yep. No one is building a Foxconn plant in Vietnam in a month. 

 

And even if you did, the workforce issue makes any sudden shifts (and by sudden I mean 2-3 years,) in tech production nearly insurmountable.  And that very much goes for here in the US as well. Meaning we couldn't staff all those jobs. And cannot even discuss wages.  Very different from say steel production or auto manufacturing where we've always been in the game albeit sometimes at higher cost. We just dont materially participate in tech manufacturing as in a Foxconn situation.  There is no immediate alternative. 

 

At least outside of arguing that we really dont need all these devices we think we need.  Which though potentially valid is a very different discussion. 

Agreed.

 

Now at the margins, maybe ~10% of what we import from China can be replaced by currently available alternatives (still a lot of legwork and churn required to substitute); however, expecting much more than that even with 25% tariffs is pretty unlikely.

 

So the US consumers will be stuck with the 25% upcharge on ~90% of what we previously imported.

 

Yes, China will lose those marginal volumes and probably some additional from demand destruction caused by the higher prices.

 

A pretty solid lose/lose if large concessions are not extracted.

Edited by ChemEngr79

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chef   
25 minutes ago, ChemEngr79 said:

Agreed.

 

Now at the margins, maybe ~10% of what we import from China can be replaced by currently available alternatives (still a lot of legwork and churn required to substitute); however, expecting much more than that even with 25% tariffs is pretty unlikely.

 

So the US consumers will be stuck with the 25% upcharge on ~90% of what we previously imported.

 

Yes, China will lose those marginal volumes and probably some additional from demand destruction caused by the higher prices.

 

A pretty solid lose/lose if large concessions are not extracted.

It is a tough situation in that yes China in some ways IS screwing us over.  But we benefit from their low production cost as an level of standard of living.  People produce in China because it's generally the cheapest/best option.   Doing it elsewhere means our businesses make less money, and our consumers functionally get a pay cut since their pay checks will have less purchasing power. 

 

 I mean it's a whole helluva lot more complicated that than given, but in essence we've gotten ourselves - both of us really (meaning China too) - into a pretty unhealthy co-dependent relationship based on greed and need, not trust nor working together toward common goals.  We use each other, abuse each other. (Ok, this is starting to sound like me and my ex-wife again.... kidding! just been on the divorce jokes lately).  And though it can be validly argued why it shouldn't be like it is, well... it is.  And like a junkie coming off heroin sans methadone, you can say to yourself that you should quit, but it's going to suck hard in every way possible.

 

My take?  Work out whatever BS deal you need to now, knowing full well the Chinese won't enforce a ton of it. In the meantime do consider alternate sources of production both domestic and abroad (will all shift automated regardless so still be roughly a 90% reduction in staffing no matter where it takes place), giving industries a fighting chance to make shifts on a reasonable time line.  Eventually (like a decade+) things start to shift organically as Chinese labor market costs rise due to a likely growing national demand there for better wages and standard of living.  Maybe even have that conversation here about "stuff" and maybe why we don't need as much of it as we think - which also tanks the stock market except 10x so.  Therefore won't happen, shop away America.

 

 

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All the hand wringing from the marxists here is laughable.

 

What you don’t see ir understand us that Trump is rewiring the economy. The globalists and the Chamber If Commerce bet against the USA and on China. They are going to lose their asses.

 

china imports $60 billion from the US and that can be replaced and will be replaced. On the other side of the coin, China has exported over 590 billion a year to the US. The US will find new trade partners around the world, including manufacturing coming back to the US.

 

Watch China subsidize the be tariffs. Yes, China will bleed cash in order to retain their state run economic model. But they can only do that for so long.

 

China is dependent on the US to keep their economy afloat and even to feed their population. Whereas, the USA is independent. We don’t need China to survive and thrive. 

 

China is a state owned economic model and we are a capitalistic economy . Two cannot work  together and both thrive without being parasitic. That’s why Trump is not allowing China to suck Our nation dry. Trump is utilizing our free trade platform to free the USA from the parasitic Chinese State run and unbalanced trade platform.

 

Freaking MAGA genius move.

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45 minutes ago, TennesseeTuxedo said:

All the hand wringing from the marxists here is laughable.

 

What you don’t see ir understand us that Trump is rewiring the economy. The globalists and the Chamber If Commerce bet against the USA and on China. They are going to lose their asses.

 

china imports $60 billion from the US and that can be replaced and will be replaced. On the other side of the coin, China has exported over 590 billion a year to the US. The US will find new trade partners around the world, including manufacturing coming back to the US.

 

Watch China subsidize the be tariffs. Yes, China will bleed cash in order to retain their state run economic model. But they can only do that for so long.

 

China is dependent on the US to keep their economy afloat and even to feed their population. Whereas, the USA is independent. We don’t need China to survive and thrive. 

 

China is a state owned economic model and we are a capitalistic economy . Two cannot work  together and both thrive without being parasitic. That’s why Trump is not allowing China to suck Our nation dry. Trump is utilizing our free trade platform to free the USA from the parasitic Chinese State run and unbalanced trade platform.

 

Freaking MAGA genius move.

 

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Soxcat   

Bottom line is if people, companies, supply chains continue to pay for Chinese goods there will be some of the cost passed on to the consumer.  But obviously, the consumer/companies have choices.  Goods can come from other countries or within the US.  It is simple economics.  As Tuxedo stated it is brilliant.  The naysayers will boo hoo because in the short run  there will be some upset markets.  After all, inflation is such a problem right now..........

 

Bottom line is the US will be better off and China will loose market share.  The Chinese have actually not just screwed us with their  strong arm approach but they have suppressed competition.  They will end up paying higher prices and losing sales. 

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Rolltide   

When have libtards ever complained about a tax increase? It's a puny $37B tax. 

 

Some so called experts on CNBC said this could cut into our growth by .2%. Ok so instead of our economy growing 3.2% it will grow 3.0%. 

 

The former CEO of Dow was on fox business and being asked about intellectual property. He said that when Dow first came to China there were only 2 American labs doing cutting edge research right in China. Today there are over 40 and we need to protect them from IP theft. He expressed his support for Trump's policies in part because of that. 

 

 

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Soxcat   

The damn left is communist so of course they want China to have our secrets.  Their impact is actually far less significant on economic growth in the short term compared to any deal where we can prevent them from stealing from us long term. 

 

Oh, and China has put themselves in a co-dependent situation.  We are fine with or without them.  Despite what MSNBC and CNN say, Trump is doing the right thing. 

 

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9 Nines   

Senior administration officials tell Axios that a trade deal with China isn't close and that the U.S. could be in for a long trade war.

 

The state of play: A senior administration official said the differences between the two sides are so profound that, based on his read of the situation, he can't see the fight getting resolved before the end of the year.

 

 

Trump yesterday held out the possibility of meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 in Japan next month. That statement may have been made in part to calm the stock market, which yesterday had its worst day since January. (Lead Financial Times headline: Global markets reel.")

 

The bottom line: White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow was right when he said on Sunday that "both sides will suffer" in a U.S.-China trade war.

The Chinese economy will be harmed. But so, too, will America's. And so will American consumers, who will pay higher prices, and American farmers, who will be targeted for retaliation by China.

 

The question remains: Can Trump, facing a re-election race in 2020, outlast China's "president for life"?

 

Both Trump and Xi have to contend with hardliners in their parties. But only one of them can harness all the tools of authoritarianism.

 

Trump’s mindset on the Chinese is simple: They only respond to shows of brute force.

 

And he thinks they’ll suffer more than America will, because they buy fewer products.

 

I've asked several current and former administration officials whether Trump actually believes that China pays the tariffs — rather than the reality that U.S. importers and consumers do.

 

The consensus is "yes": That's what he actually believes.

 

And as one former aide said: There’s little point trying to persuade Trump otherwise, because his belief in tariffs is "like theology."

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WG53   
4 hours ago, Soxcat said:

The damn left is communist so of course they want China to have our secrets.  Their impact is actually far less significant on economic growth in the short term compared to any deal where we can prevent them from stealing from us long term. 

 

Oh, and China has put themselves in a co-dependent situation.  We are fine with or without them.  Despite what MSNBC and CNN say, Trump is doing the right thing. 

 

More Trump ball licking. 

 

Grow a fucking backbone you damn coward.

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begooode   
8 minutes ago, Legaltitan said:

So apparently trade wars are easy to win. And apparently China wants a deal "very badly". And Trump is the best at negotiating deals. 

 

So, almost a year after this trade war started... Why don't we have a deal? 

Nasty bit of trolling when "The Art of the Deal" author agreed to have his book reclassified as fiction after the story broke showing Trump's billion dollar loser.

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I don't think anyone knows what the impact of these tariffs will be.  Its what many of the Trump voters wanted- blow it up and see what happens.   That is basically what this is. 

 

  • There is a trade deficit.  It is unclear what makes this bad. There are lots of possibilities.  Taking advantage of cheap laborers elsewhere.  Creating an environment where domestic companies can't compete as well due to requirements of working conditions.  US is basically fine with poor working conditions out of country but find them abhorrent locally.   
  • This could mean we shift the trade deficit from china to other countries.  There are plenty of countries out there that will make "stuff" for us.  The US is not getting lowering its labor standards anytime soon. People and companies are still going to shift to the lowest cost globally.   
  • That can't happen fast.  Most of these imports are bought by a large company- not individual consumers.  Individual consumers can change spending habits pretty quickly.  Companies have contracts for goods.  This likely starts with an increase in price.   This will hit those Companies.   Then those companies will shift their suppliers or their production warehouses to new countries that are not China.  
  • It will it consumers pretty quickly as the companies doing the importing will have to increase their costs to pay for the tariffs. So goods from China speicifically will get more expensive.  Who do they compete with? I honestly don't know.  It likely just shifts to the next cheapest which is still likely not American
  • It will impact China. I think I saw an estimate of 2% of their GDP will be affected in the short term.  If you're Trump or a Trump supporter, maybe that's a good thing for.  You get to hurt someone you see as a boogie man.  Will it dramatically effect their economy or their stance in teh world or their leaders-  highly unlikely. 
  • In the meantime, the retribution will hurt-- As exporters lose business.  They also lose long term business that is likley not easily to replace.   

 

Its a mess.  Will it come to any good?  Who knows?    Its just shaking things up and seeing what falls out.   In the meantime, it will hurt people and has a risk to significantly hurt the US economy and China's economy long term.   It will hurt laborers in China and farmers in the US. 

 

I haven't seen anyone but Trump and his loyalist spin this as definite good thing. I also don't think anyone knows how bad it will be.  Its just too complicated. It may be huge and it may be a blip.    

 

 

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Tariffs would have worked a lot better if we were using an asymmetrical front against China alongside our allies. Trump and his base are too stupid to understand this very simple fact. They’re same ones who thought it was perfectly fine to invade Iraq without any major input or assistance from our allies. 

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