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Investigating Marcus Mariota’s downfield accuracy in 2018


Huston

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Impressive breakdown.  Especially in view of the current level of criticism thrown at Mariota on TR.   If he can stay on the field with a better WR core and an improved IOL, then 2019 will b

He doesn't want that either. Because if he plays well then it would confirm that Mariota simply had to play better.   What he wants is he's let go and he shines somewhere else so he can prov

With the two-week break leading up to the Super Bowl, I usually like to take this time to start charting for what I like to call The Deep Ball Project. Founded by me in 2014, The Deep Ball Project—as

i think the counter-argument to this is he ONLY releases the ball when wide open... so therefore his accuracy and efficiency are higher. 

 

would also be nice to see how his attempts and attempt % compares to the rest of the league. 

 

when we charted rivers near-perfect game and brees best games this season against mariotas houston performance... we saw similar aggressiveness but with a slight leaning of  rivers/brees to be more conservative. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Number9 said:

I would like to know how many mm threw compared to other qbs. How many per game?  

wtf? this is a terrible stat. not relevant to the conversation at all. 

 

you posted total yards? why?

Edited by titanruss
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6 hours ago, titanruss said:

 

Most shots he took were on PA.  Of course he's going to have a higher completion percentage.  He never sat back in the pocket and took shots downfield like other QBs.  

 

Didn't Alex Smith lead this category a year ago?  Do you think they'd prefer to have him, or a QB who throws it downfield enough for this stat to matter?

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Marcus is extremely accurate and consistent throwing down the field...but he has to be more aggressive about taking those shots.  

 

In fairness to Marcus,   It seems like 90% of the deep shots have targeted  Taywan Taylor....but Taylor’s hands are inconsistent and he’s never shown the ability to make contested catches.   Marcus can’t just let it go and assume Taywan will make a play...he has to wait until he’s open, which reinforces the problem rather than helping.

 

So it’s a bit of a chicken-or-egg argument.  Marcus definitely needs to be more aggressive with it...but it’s hard to develop that  aggressive edge when he can’t trust his  receivers to step up and make a play. 

 

Personally, I think they need to scale back Taylor’s targets and utilize Davis more often in that role.  Davis is less likely to be left wide open , but he has a far better chance of winning the battle and completing a contested catch.

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2 hours ago, abc2330 said:

Most shots he took were on PA.  Of course he's going to have a higher completion percentage.  He never sat back in the pocket and took shots downfield like other QBs.  

 

Didn't Alex Smith lead this category a year ago?  Do you think they'd prefer to have him, or a QB who throws it downfield enough for this stat to matter?

LOL Alex Smith did in 2017. Yay, yet another Smith/Mariota comparison:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000921980/article/alex-smith-matthew-stafford-head-top-deepball-throwers-of-17

 

One of the more shocking developments of the 2017 season was the statistical heights Alex Smith, regarded as a mere game manager for years, reached as a passer for theChiefs. It was a year on par with Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season from an efficiency standpoint. His most notable improvement came as a downfield passer. Smith attempted 4.2 deep passes per game (10th-most among qualifying quarterbacks) this past season to just 2.9 the year prior. His deep-passing effectiveness was not just markedly better, it was at league-best levels, as he ranked first in long-ball passer rating, deep completion rate and percentage of overall yards coming on deep throws. Smith didn't rank higher than 20th in any of those categories in 2016. The influence of having the NFL's best deep threat as your No. 1 wideout in Tyreek Hill was real and noticeable. Smith will now take his talents to Washington in an effort to show 2017 was the start of a new trend in his career, not just a glaring outlier.

 

And yeah, they still knew what he was and let him go.

 

These were schemed deep balls. I'd like to see him drop back and do it without it being explicitly schemed like you said.

 

Edited by big2033
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7 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

If you’re gonna only throw the ball when the WR is wide as open you better be accurate 

Truth. It's also worth noting most of these deep plays were 1 read, single coverage, probably practiced ad nauseum. 

 

I honestly believe that if Mariota was more aggressive passing, his numbers would look like Bortles/Fitzmagic. He's never gotten over the hump--for whatever excuse.

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