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You Called A Run On First Down. You’re Already Screwed.(538)

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tgo   

I mean - could it be that pass pass rush is most successful due to the fact that the expectation overall is rush rush pass?

 

That is, simply put, because of the “establishing the run” mantra that has been ingrained for decades in the league, passing on first down is more successful bc it is unexpected. 

 

Maybe I’m just stating the obvious here. 

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Thrill   
14 minutes ago, tgo said:

I mean - could it be that pass pass rush is most successful due to the fact that the expectation overall is rush rush pass?

 

That is, simply put, because of the “establishing the run” mantra that has been ingrained for decades in the league, passing on first down is more successful bc it is unexpected. 

 

Maybe I’m just stating the obvious here. 

I also wonder if the teams that are passing frequently on first down have superior qbs. Only teams with confidence in their qb would be passing on first assuming they’re not paying attention to the analytics.

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57 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The running game def helps with complimentary football but you have to throw to score.

com·ple·men·ta·ry

/ˌkämpləˈment(ə)rē/

adjective

1.

combining in such a way as to enhance or emphasize the qualities of each other or another.

"three guitarists playing interlocking, complementary parts"

synonyms:harmonizing, harmonious, complementing, supportive, supporting, reciprocal, interdependent, interrelated, compatible, corresponding, matching, twin; More

 

Not to be the grammar nazi (a grammar nazi's work would never be done on this board), but you make a genuine effort to use the proper terms, avoid errors, and so forth.  Plus, complimentary/complementary is one of my bigger pet peeves.

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1 hour ago, tgo said:

I mean - could it be that pass pass rush is most successful due to the fact that the expectation overall is rush rush pass?

 

That is, simply put, because of the “establishing the run” mantra that has been ingrained for decades in the league, passing on first down is more successful bc it is unexpected. 

 

Maybe I’m just stating the obvious here. 

Your close but haven’t hit the nail right on the head. Sequencing is the bias here.

 

Pass-Pass-Rush will always be a more successful sequence regardless of the status quo.

 

The reason for this is because coaches will only run on third if the first two passing downs were successful or a massive failure (sacks/penalties). So most of the times when this sequence happens it will be 3rd and 3 or less.

 

On the flip side for Run-Run-Pass the indicator is going to be the third down again. Coaches will opt to pass when both first and second down were not as successful, leaving the 3rd down being longer then the scenario above.

 

I bet if you looked at the average third down length for those two sequences and matched them with the conversion rate for a generic third down and matching length; all third downs regardless of sequence or play choice, you’d find the conversion rates pretty similar.

Edited by TheBukafax

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45 minutes ago, The Toddster said:

com·ple·men·ta·ry

/ˌkämpləˈment(ə)rē/

adjective

1.

combining in such a way as to enhance or emphasize the qualities of each other or another.

"three guitarists playing interlocking, complementary parts"

synonyms:harmonizing, harmonious, complementing, supportive, supporting, reciprocal, interdependent, interrelated, compatible, corresponding, matching, twin; More

 

Not to be the grammar nazi (a grammar nazi's work would never be done on this board), but you make a genuine effort to use the proper terms, avoid errors, and so forth.  Plus, complimentary/complementary is one of my bigger pet peeves.

Touched, you're an insult to intelligence. 

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Denali   
2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

I'd say that while I was very pleased with Vrabel overall this is the most disappointing aspect of the 2018 season. We don't know how much Vrabel dictated this but he certainly could have altered it.

All things being equal, then OK.  But all things are not equal.  He was saddled with Mariota at QB.

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So the two teams that did it the most made the playoffs and one had a win and youre in game.

 

Yes. Really a failing strategy.

 

Funny thing is both teams running game just sucked. That's why it failed more than anything else. 

Edited by JakePA_Titan

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