You Called A Run On First Down. You’re Already Screwed.(538)

[OILERMAN]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/

 

This is a great article. Basically coaches try and run on 1st down most of the time, and it fails. 

 

The Seahawks ran a 3 play sequence of run-run-pass 26% of the time, the Titans were the 2nd most at 24% of the time. It's a failing formula. 

 

The notion of establishing the run is deeply ingrained in NFL culture. Coaches and play-callers laud the approach for its ability to keep a team “on schedule” and “ahead of the chains,” both of which are football shorthand for picking up enough yards on first and second down that you stand a good chance to extend a drive. True believers think that if you abandon the run too early, you make your team one-dimensional and forfeit an important edge in toughness. You’re no longer imposing your will on a defense, and this will manifest itself in worse results overall. But is this true? Does running help a team convert more first downs and extend drives? And does the order in which you call pass and run plays matter?

 

 Pass-rush-rush is the most successful three-play sequence, followed by pass-pass-rush and rush-pass-rush.

 

On first down, passing will net you at least 5 yards (enough to make the play a success) 47 percent of the time, while running the ball will get you the same result just 32.8 percent of the time, 14.2 percentage points less often. On second down, the gap closes to about a 7 percentage-point advantage for passing.

 

Play-calling patterns that end in a pass on third down have a negative expected value across the board. 

 

Surprisingly, two of the top three teams in net yards per passing attempt in 2018, the Rams and the Chiefs, actually do have success with the rush-rush-pass play sequence.

 

some trends are clear. Passes are more effective when called on early downs, and runs are more effective on third down. Running on first down, while often a mistake, can be salvaged with a pass on second down( @scine09). And if you’re going to rush on back-to-back plays to open a series, you should do so sparingly because it will leave your team in an obvious passing situation more often than not. Your passing attack — and QB especially — will need to be well above average to consistently convert in those high-leverage spots where all deception is gone and defenders can be confident that they know what’s coming.

 

 

[OILERMAN]

I'd say that while I was very pleased with Vrabel overall this is the most disappointing aspect of the 2018 season. We don't know how much Vrabel dictated this but he certainly could have altered it.

 

Warren Sharp had the stats that the Titans ran on 1st down this season more than either of Mularkey's seasons and was less successful at it. This trend continued after the bye when Mariota's health improved and he was throwing the ball well.

 

Regardless of the new OC this one simple trend has to change. 

 

It's funny that KC and the Rams were actually most successful running on 1st down but still threw the ball more on 1st down. Hello?

[Justafan]

One of my biggest gripes was how often MLF would call a run play on 1st down and it would predictably fail.  

[Jonboy]

Haha I was just about to post this.

[pat]

With Vrabel am optimistic this gets corrected.

[OILERMAN]

The running game def helps with complimentary football but you have to throw to score. 

 

The early 90 Cowboys get tagged as a running team but Norv Turner was actually very aggressive early in games with big pass plays and play action. They would get the early lead while teams geared up to stop their dominant running game then they would pound teams in the 4th quarter with their run game. Smith gained most of his yards in the 4th quarter.

 

Throw to score run to win 

 

 

[tgo]

I mean - could it be that pass pass rush is most successful due to the fact that the expectation overall is rush rush pass?

 

That is, simply put, because of the “establishing the run” mantra that has been ingrained for decades in the league, passing on first down is more successful bc it is unexpected. 

 

Maybe I’m just stating the obvious here. 

[Thrill]

14 minutes ago, tgo said:

I mean - could it be that pass pass rush is most successful due to the fact that the expectation overall is rush rush pass?

 

That is, simply put, because of the “establishing the run” mantra that has been ingrained for decades in the league, passing on first down is more successful bc it is unexpected. 

 

Maybe I’m just stating the obvious here. 

I also wonder if the teams that are passing frequently on first down have superior qbs. Only teams with confidence in their qb would be passing on first assuming they’re not paying attention to the analytics.

[The Toddster]

57 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The running game def helps with complimentary football but you have to throw to score.

com·ple·men·ta·ry

/ˌkämpləˈment(ə)rē/

adjective

1.

combining in such a way as to enhance or emphasize the qualities of each other or another.

"three guitarists playing interlocking, complementary parts"

synonyms:harmonizing, harmonious, complementing, supportive, supporting, reciprocal, interdependent, interrelated, compatible, corresponding, matching, twin; More

 

Not to be the grammar nazi (a grammar nazi's work would never be done on this board), but you make a genuine effort to use the proper terms, avoid errors, and so forth.  Plus, complimentary/complementary is one of my bigger pet peeves.

[TerryBoats]

You have Mariota at QB.  You're already screwed.

[TheBukafax]

1 hour ago, tgo said:

I mean - could it be that pass pass rush is most successful due to the fact that the expectation overall is rush rush pass?

 

That is, simply put, because of the “establishing the run” mantra that has been ingrained for decades in the league, passing on first down is more successful bc it is unexpected. 

 

Maybe I’m just stating the obvious here. 

Your close but haven’t hit the nail right on the head. Sequencing is the bias here.

 

Pass-Pass-Rush will always be a more successful sequence regardless of the status quo.

 

The reason for this is because coaches will only run on third if the first two passing downs were successful or a massive failure (sacks/penalties). So most of the times when this sequence happens it will be 3rd and 3 or less.

 

On the flip side for Run-Run-Pass the indicator is going to be the third down again. Coaches will opt to pass when both first and second down were not as successful, leaving the 3rd down being longer then the scenario above.

 

I bet if you looked at the average third down length for those two sequences and matched them with the conversion rate for a generic third down and matching length; all third downs regardless of sequence or play choice, you’d find the conversion rates pretty similar.

Edited January 12, 2019 by TheBukafax

[ManningEnvy]

45 minutes ago, The Toddster said:

com·ple·men·ta·ry

/ˌkämpləˈment(ə)rē/

adjective

1.

combining in such a way as to enhance or emphasize the qualities of each other or another.

"three guitarists playing interlocking, complementary parts"

synonyms:harmonizing, harmonious, complementing, supportive, supporting, reciprocal, interdependent, interrelated, compatible, corresponding, matching, twin; More

 

Not to be the grammar nazi (a grammar nazi's work would never be done on this board), but you make a genuine effort to use the proper terms, avoid errors, and so forth.  Plus, complimentary/complementary is one of my bigger pet peeves.

Touched, you're an insult to intelligence. 

[Denali]

2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

I'd say that while I was very pleased with Vrabel overall this is the most disappointing aspect of the 2018 season. We don't know how much Vrabel dictated this but he certainly could have altered it.

All things being equal, then OK.  But all things are not equal.  He was saddled with Mariota at QB.

[titansjr9988]

Unless its 1st and 10 from your own 1yd line and you hand it to Henry

[TheBukafax]

11 minutes ago, JakePA_Titan said:

So the two teams that did it the most made the playoffs and one had a win and youre in game.

 

Yes. Really a failing strategy.

 

Funny thing is both teams running game just sucked. That's why it failed more than anything else. 

Not true as to why the sequence failed more but good try simple