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OILERMAN

The tax windfall that wasn't: A troubling new IRS report suggests many Americans may be giving money right back to the government

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chef   
10 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

High income earner below the 1% is the worst spot for taxes 

yep.  bit anxious rolling into tax season, especially as I sold a crap ton of securities in the fall which will kick my sch D into different territory altogether (was as a function of divorce as well as market timing).  and a couple sch Ks to pile on as well.

 

even losing 2 of 3 kids as write offs as we're going to alternate who gets to write off 2 vs 1 and she gets first dibs if course. 

 

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OILERMAN   
3 hours ago, chef said:

yep.  bit anxious rolling into tax season, especially as I sold a crap ton of securities in the fall which will kick my sch D into different territory altogether (was as a function of divorce as well as market timing).  and a couple sch Ks to pile on as well.

 

even losing 2 of 3 kids as write offs as we're going to alternate who gets to write off 2 vs 1 and she gets first dibs if course. 

 

Who you fooling, you're in the 1%!

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chef   
9 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

Who you fooling, you're in the 1%!

Sheeet... I wasn't close before and definitely not now (post divorce).

 

Was 3% maybe, but that's only because it's graded on the steep curve where bottom 1/4 are barely above zero and  bottom 10% are basically negative.  The jumps from top 25% to top 10 to top 5 to 1 are staggering.  And don't even talk about the 0.1%. Makes those at the entry point for the 1%ers look like they need food stamps.

 

Probably near same ballpark as you, i.e. people who've actually saved/invested money for a decent people of time.  Been smart with their money.

 

Well, I've been mostly smart.  Just did some stupid though.  Something fundamentally dumb, guaranteed cash suck.  Got an AMG on a ship right now from from CA.  Gotta do something post-divorce/midlife crisis fun right? :)  Besides, in 20 years when my boys are sitting in a silent electric self-driving autobot, I want them to be able to remember what a rip-roaring V8 sounds like.  It's against my beliefs in so many ways (waste of money, waste of gas, etc), but I made a bet with myself that if I could clear it trading volatility in Jan. I'd do it.

 

And.... check. Thanks VXX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, chef said:

And.... check. Thanks VXX.

VXX was kind to me last year as well. And bought it after selling some AAPL near the peak. 

 

My taxes will be up...

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chef   
41 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

VXX was kind to me last year as well. And bought it after selling some AAPL near the peak. 

 

My taxes will be up...

Rode the short down last year.  Then been riding that elevator up and down patiently during the turbulence.  Eventually, it's always down,  though how long, and how far up before that happens is a crap shoot.  Been batting pretty much 1,000 so far this year. Even though just taking small wins at times after being down huge at others (but not closing).  It WILL bite me in the ass - again - eventually.  Like it has before. Like when I was on the wrong side of the fence, going long waiting for that turbulence.... waiting, waiting... Brexit? nope. NK? nope.  Trump/Hillary? Nope/nope.  Ended up riding it down through that longest period of market in-volatility ever.  Ouch.  But as was using it as a hedge, the rest went up.  So was treading water or maybe dog paddling while others were looking like Mark Spitz, but at least was not sinking. 

 

Frankly I would not rec for anyone to do what I've been up to lately.  And if there was any "good" advice on it, would say run short - forever.  Starting whenever it looks like the sky is falling.  And hold onto your seat.   Problem lately, and might just be with the new VXXB but still was with VXX (maybe related to the closing and transition) is that getting short shares has been challenging if not impossible.  Kinda hoping now the crap hits the fan and it breaks into 40 range again, at which point I might try to short again (in increments) even knowing it might well continue up this ladder for a while yet.

 

What are your thoughts on it's direction near time and then over the course of this year?  I know it's going to have movement this year, but when, how much, what direction?  I can make arguments for/against anything at this point.  I only know that it seems likely to do some bouncing both ways, and then again eventually down... eventually.  So when they pull the last of the seats in the musical chairs game I need to be on the right side of the deal (short).

 

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chef   
2 minutes ago, patsplat said:

@chef can't take the money with you.  Enjoy that AMG you earned.

Divorce will make that sink in in a whole different way.  When you spend years and years trying to make someone happy and worrying about everyone's future, eventually you should maybe pause and think about your own happiness, today.

 

 

I don't think a car is really the answer, but I do enjoy them.  Driving them at least.  Not the type to want to show them off and be gawked at (which I one reason I went with this AMG, but more subtle, in appearance anyway).   But like a funny wine saying I like:

 

Money can't buy happiness.

But it can buy wine, and that's sorta the same thing.

 

Definitely getting more in touch with being honest about what I want to do.  Not some YOLO bs, but just trying to lose the guilt of doing something for me.  Which ironically can make you a better you for them (your kids I mean).

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2 hours ago, chef said:

What are your thoughts on it's direction near time and then over the course of this year?  I know it's going to have movement this year, but when, how much, what direction?  I can make arguments for/against anything at this point.  I only know that it seems likely to do some bouncing both ways, and then again eventually down... eventually.  So when they pull the last of the seats in the musical chairs game I need to be on the right side of the deal (short).

It’s all too hard to predict Trump. Will signs point to an economic slowdown? Will they make a deal with China? Will there be another shutdown? Will they screw with the debt ceiling vote? Will the House or Mueller release anything impeachment-worthy? It’s just too hard to guess where things will go.

Edited by Starkiller

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chef   
3 hours ago, Starkiller said:

It’s all too hard to predict Trump. Will signs point to an economic slowdown? Will they make a deal with China? Will there be another shutdown? Will they screw with the debt ceiling vote? Will the House or Mueller release anything impeachment-worthy? It’s just too hard to guess where things will go.

The thing is as I'm sure you know is that for a long time now leading into trump's election a d since the market and volatility specifically dont really seem to give a darn about much.  Its yo the point that I bet even an impeachment might do little (relatively) to move the needle.  A sudden surprise raise in interest rates (highly doubtful), complete fallout with China (less doubtful but still unlikely).  Things like that could send it soaring.  

 

So is hard to read right now. 

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OILERMAN   

U.S. Banks Win $21 Billion Trump Tax Windfall Then Cut Staff, Loaned Less

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/banks-reaping-21-billion-tax-windfall-cut-staff-ease-off-loans?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

 

Major U.S. banks shaved about $21 billion from their tax bills last year -- almost double the IRS’s annual budget -- as the industry benefited more than many others from the Republican tax overhaul.

 

By year-end, most of the nation’s largest lenders met or exceeded their initial predictions for tax savings. On average, the banks saw their effective tax rates fall below 19 percent from the roughly 28 percent they paid in 2016. And while the breaks set off a gusher of payouts to shareholders, firms cut thousands of jobs and saw their lending growth slow.

 

While banks vowed to use a portion of their savings to reward employees, help needy communities and support small businesses, the magnitude of their break and how the money was divvied is likely to fuel debate over whether the law was an effective way to stoke the economy. The 23 firms boosted dividends and stock buybacks 23 percent, and they eliminated almost 4,300 jobs. A few have signaled plans to cut thousands more.

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It reminds me of when they bailed out the banks the first time around only to have them cut small business lending by up to 90%. When will the idiots realize this isn’t the way forward? 

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ctm   
24 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

It reminds me of when they bailed out the banks the first time around only to have them cut small business lending by up to 90%. When will the idiots realize this isn’t the way forward? 

They don't care as long as Trump appoints anti-abortion judges to the supreme court.  Unfortunately for them, Roberts screwed them last night in a Louisiana case.

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OILERMAN   
25 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

It reminds me of when they bailed out the banks the first time around only to have them cut small business lending by up to 90%. When will the idiots realize this isn’t the way forward? 

The Republicans rammed the tax cut through despite even Republican voters were against it, just like they tried to repeal the ACA despite their own voters being opposed to it. 

 

Voter suppression and filling the court with stooge judges are all they have left

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