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Democratic Nomination for 2020 - UPDATED to include those who have officially announced

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tgo   
10 minutes ago, oldschool said:

Its more than perception. Biden knows how to talk to the masses like Obama and Clinton did. Hillary struggled with it as she's a straight up policy wonk. They are not the same candidate because big money backs them.

Well big money actually backs several other candidates in the race moreso, namely Buttigieg and Harris and Booker but point taken. 

Edited by tgo

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tgo   

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/

 

Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election

 

Here’s an interesting read from 2017 About Clinton’s ground game. 

 

“In fact, Clinton’s ground game advantage over Trump may have been as large as the one Obama had over Mitt Romney in 2012. It just wasn’t enough to save the Electoral College for her.”

 

“She received almost as many votes (65.85 million) as Obama had nationwide (65.92 million). But while she earned 900,000 more votes than Obama in California and almost 600,000 more in Texas, she underperformed him in the swing states.”

 

“....That strongly implies that the demographic commonalities between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — both of them have lots of white voters without college degrees — mattered a lot more than the difference in campaign tactics.”

 

“But studies from political scientists find the effects of a superior turnout operation to be quite modest in presidential elections 9 — usually overwhelmed by larger, macro-level factors. In 2012, for example, the condition of the economy probably mattered more than Obama’s turnout operation. And in 2016, all the news generated by Trump and the media circus surrounding him, plus major stories like the FBI’s investigation of Clinton, tended to drown out the candidates’ efforts at a piecemeal, coalition-building approach. You certainly can criticize Clinton for choosing an overall message that didn’t sell to white voters without college degrees.”

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7 hours ago, oldschool said:

Its more than perception. Biden knows how to talk to the masses like Obama and Clinton did. Hillary struggled with it as she's a straight up policy wonk. They are not the same candidate because big money backs them.

They support the exact same ideology. 

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8 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

They support the exact same ideology. 

You mean the same ideology the majority of the party supports? The vocal minority does not speak for the party...

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Soxcat   

Socialism?

It is funny how Pelosi is not being tagged as a racist.  Trying to shut down "women of color" in her own party.  They are turning on each other.  And if Warren does edge out Biden, which she probably will, we will have a full blown socialist running for president for the Democrats with zero chance of winning the election. 

 

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tgo   
20 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

Only 12 % of democrats have decided who they want to be the nominee 

Yeah, saw that from one the of recent polls. The race is totally wide open. 

 

I think this field of candidates is very weak overall personally. 

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1 minute ago, tgo said:

Yeah, saw that from one the of recent polls. The race is totally wide open. 

 

I think this field of candidates is very weak overall personally. 

I’d say it’s incredibly strong considering after Hillary everyone was saying the Dems had no bench. Now there are about half a dozen really strong candidates, some old some much younger. And there are lots of good 2nd tier candidates who just can’t get traction because of the sheer number of candidates.

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20 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

I’d say it’s incredibly strong considering after Hillary everyone was saying the Dems had no bench. Now there are about half a dozen really strong candidates, some old some much younger. And there are lots of good 2nd tier candidates who just can’t get traction because of the sheer number of candidates.

half a dozen really? Biden and Warren are the only strong candidates at this point. Bernie is done and Harris is struggling to gain traction outside of Carolina with moderates.

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tgo   

Good CNN article came out this morning - How Trump could win in 2020: Democrats nominate a very liberal candidate

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/politics/how-do-liberals-do-against-trump-2020-analysis/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-07-12T13%3A55%3A02&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social

 

"A hallmark study by Stanford University's Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson looking at congressional races from 2006 to 2014 demonstrated that more moderate candidates performed more strongly. This is because extreme candidates on one side tend to raise the opposition's turnout. (This runs counter to the argument that base candidates raise turnout to help their side win. Instead, it may be the opposite.) My own simple examination of the 2006-2018 House returns indicates that incumbents with more moderate voting records continued to have an advantage, once we control for a district's voting history and money spent by the campaigns."

 

"Clinton, meanwhile, was seen by voters as basically tied for the second most liberal Democratic presidential nominee since George McGovern in 1972. This may surprise a lot of people, but reports at the time of the Democratic National Convention noted how liberal the Democratic Party and her platform were. Clinton perhaps moved left to fight off Sanders."

 

"Nominating a very liberal candidate is a risky bet, though, especially given the polling so far. The well-known left candidates are doing worse than the more moderate one. Nominating one of them certainly strays from the playbook that Democrats used in the 2018 election to take back the House."

 

 

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tgo   
5 minutes ago, oldschool said:

half a dozen really? Biden and Warren are the only strong candidates at this point. Bernie is done and Harris is struggling to gain traction outside of Carolina with moderates.

Warren is a strong candidate in the primary but don't see her beating Trump personally. And general election polls so far seem to indicate the same. 

 

Trump is actually getting stronger as time goes on rather than the other way around. IMO, The only way a progressive candidate could beat him is if he is impeached by the House or more *very* damaging info comes out, or the economy sinks, or he gets us into a war. Barring those things happening outright, I don't see him losing to Warren or Harris at all.  

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3 minutes ago, tgo said:

Warren is a strong candidate in the primary but don't see her beating Trump personally. And general election polls so far seem to indicate the same. 

 

Trump is actually getting stronger as time goes on rather than the other way around. IMO, The only way a progressive candidate could beat him is if he is impeached by the House or more *very* damaging info comes out, or the economy sinks, or he gets us into a war. Barring those things happening outright, I don't see him losing to Warren or Harris at all.  

I meant strong from a party standpoint. I'm skeptical she could beat Trump in the general. I laugh at crunchies like SK who think the democratic field is strong.

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Soxcat   

SK sees the field as strong because it has multiple socialists.  What they really lack is a strong moderate who isn't asleep. 

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