Democratic Nomination for 2020 - UPDATED to include those who have officially announced

[oldschool]

34 minutes ago, Cornrow Wallace said:

 

Sanders absolutely should not pick someone to the right of him to be VP. I'm hoping for Nina Turner.

 

You are even more batshit crazy than I thought. 

[oldschool]

1 hour ago, tgo said:

 

Biden is not going to just go away or be finished if Sanders sweeps the first three. The delegate designation will still be close and Biden should be able to get a delegate lead with a strong SC win. 

 

People assume that Biden's South Carolina lead is superficial and that it will be swayed by the early contests. That may be true to some small degree with white people, but his stranglehold on the state is deep. 

 

Biden will then likely go on to win the following states on Super Tuesday, where he is currently winning by large margins per available polling: 

Texas

Tennessee

Alabama

Arkansas

North Carolina 

Oklahoma

Virginia

 

All of these states have more delegates than any of the first three states. Even Tennessee has more delegates than any of the first three states. 

 

If Bloomberg gains significant ground in those states closer to Super Tuesday, it will do nothing except further split the moderate vote. 

 

Like I said, Biden will stay in for the possibility of a brokered convention regardless of what happens. People should remember that even if one candidate "wins" a state, they may only have a few delegate lead from winning said state. 

 

You win the nomination based on delegates won in districts in most cases, and most of these districts are rural. 

 

The whole nomination process is about delegates, delegates, delegates. And Biden has built their strategy around winning rural delegates while ceding urban delegates. 

 

 

 

Dude the track record of candidates winning the nomination after losing the 1st 3 contest isnt good. It could signal Biden is weaker than anyone thought. This is precisely why I hate the fact New Hampshire and Iowa are right out of the gate. They shouldn't get to decide who belongs in the race at the start. I suspect if Bloomberg does okay more will follow his lead.

[tgo]

8 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

Dude the track record of candidates winning the nomination after losing the 1st 3 contest isnt good. It could signal Biden is weaker than anyone thought. This is precisely why I hate the fact New Hampshire and Iowa are right out of the gate. They shouldn't get to decide who belongs in the race at the start. I suspect if Bloomberg does okay more will follow his lead.

 

Oh I agree, I’m just saying he’s not going to throw in the towel early as there would still be a path forward.

 

As far as Bloomberg, he can spend all the money he wants but still won’t have participated in a debate or been treated by the media as a viable candidate. 

 

Biden has actually pulled a lot of resources out of NH and is spending those resources on Iowa and NV. His relative lack of resources to date makes me very nervous.   

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by tgo

[Cornrow Wallace]

1 hour ago, oldschool said:

 

You are even more batshit crazy than I thought. 

 

You're just as naive as I thought. He needs to pick a VP with similar policy in order to protect himself.

[oldschool]

9 minutes ago, Cornrow Wallace said:

 

You're just as naive as I thought. He needs to pick a VP with similar policy in order to protect himself.

 

What a joke. She isn't remotely qualified. The progressives have lost their minds.

[Titans279]

Harris would be a terrible VP and president so naturally she will probably be Biden’s choice. 

[Starkiller]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/survey-warren-polls-better-against-biden-than-sanders-108289
 

The online survey testing hypothetical match-ups by Data for Progress, which was conducted by YouGov Blue, showed that 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would support Biden if a national race were held today, while 45 percent said they would back Warren, according to the poll. If the primary were between Sanders and Biden, 53 percent said they would vote for Biden and 41 percent would get behind Sanders.

[Titans279]

 

 

 

[Pragidealist]

13 hours ago, oldschool said:

 

I still think she is Biden's VP pick. She'll wait to see how he does before throwing her hat in the ring.

Justice department would be a better fit. Biden needs young and charismatic..

[No1TitansFan]

10 hours ago, Starkiller said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/survey-warren-polls-better-against-biden-than-sanders-108289
 

The online survey testing hypothetical match-ups by Data for Progress, which was conducted by YouGov Blue, showed that 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would support Biden if a national race were held today, while 45 percent said they would back Warren, according to the poll. If the primary were between Sanders and Biden, 53 percent said they would vote for Biden and 41 percent would get behind Sanders.

I would be happy to vote for her, her background is much more preferable to me than Bernie's and she champions the little guy equally as well, imho. I also think she could handle Trump's attacks much better and that he would go too far, turning off lots of women voters.

[Come on Titans]

Bloomberg on Fallon....pretty funny

 

[tgo]

If Sanders wins Iowa, there is a clear path for him through Super Tuesday and beyond, even if Biden wins South Carolina due to the momentum that he would build. 

 

If he wins Iowa and NH, my opinion is that he would then win NV since it's a caucus. Then Biden likely wins South Carolina regardless. 

 

But even if Biden (or Bloomberg) wins all the major southern states, Bernie could win California, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah where he is already ahead. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by tgo

[oldschool]

1 minute ago, tgo said:

If Sanders wins Iowa, there is a clear path for him through Super Tuesday and beyond, even if Biden wins South Carolina due to the momentum that he would build. 

 

If he wins Iowa and NH, my opinion is that he would then win NV since it's a caucus. Then Biden likely wins South Carolina regardless. 

 

But even if Biden (or Bloomberg) wins all the major southern states, Bernie could win California, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah where he is already ahead. 

 

Since delegates are split we are headed for a brokered convention anyway which actually may be beneficial to Sanders as that will lessen the time the GOP has to attack Sanders in the general election.

[Cornrow Wallace]

 

a good thread on why fighting to build on Obamacare is terrible for people and great for insurance company profits.

 

Deductibles are up 162% on the last decade.

Premiums have increased from $14k to over $20k.

 

The current system is broken.

[MadMax]

45 minutes ago, Cornrow Wallace said:

 

a good thread on why fighting to build on Obamacare is terrible for people and great for insurance company profits.

 

Deductibles are up 162% on the last decade.

Premiums have increased from $14k to over $20k.

 

The current system is broken.

 

The current system is more than just broken.  My deductible is obscene.  My premiums are obscene.  My coverage is absolutely sub-par - it's criminal, my max benefit.   And I have, what's considered to be, a decent package for my industry.   I can't afford to be sick, Lord help me if I had to have a surgery.  It'll take me all year to pay for a tooth extraction and implant I'm having fun with.