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Democratic Nomination for 2020 - UPDATED to include those who have officially announced

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New CNN poll before the next debates:

 

Joe Biden leads the Democratic presidential primary but a tight race for second place has formed behind him as Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads Sen. Bernie Sanders by one point, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

 

The former vice president is at 24%, Warren at 18% and Sanders at 17% are once again the only candidates to reach double-digit support. Three other candidates have 5% or support or more in the poll: Sen. Kamala Harris (8%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (6%) and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (5%). The remaining candidates all score 2% or less in the poll.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-renominate-trump/index.html

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1 hour ago, begooode said:

This is kinda where I am (Politico article).  The data looks convincing that Bernie can take down Drumpf, but he makes me the most nervous of any of the leading dem candidates.

 

Virtually every poll since 2016 has shown Bernie Sanders would beat Donald Trump.

But Sanders’ aides know that some Democrats don’t buy it: Doubters just can’t picture the people of, say, rural Pennsylvania putting a 78-year-old democratic socialist in the White House. It strains their very idea of America itself.

 

“We still have to work to do,” Faiz Shakir, Sanders’ campaign manager, told POLITICO. “Amongst the Democratic primary electorate, in some pockets, there’s fear of how he’s going to campaign on Medicare for All: ‘Are people going to get nervous and run away from it?’”

 

Sanders’ aides have long believed that persuading voters he can oust Trump is key to winning the primary. It’s been a central part of their strategy since the earliest days of their 2020 campaign, and they’ve crafted a campaign tour, speeches and digital P.R. push aimed at winning the argument. But after months of work, they’re still running up against voters who support Sanders’ bid but just can’t see it happening, no matter what the poll numbers say.

 

"I love Bernie,” said Gloria Hoag, a New Hampshire delegate, at the state Democratic Party’s annual convention last weekend. “But I don't know if he can beat Trump because he's so far to the left. We need someone who's a little more moderate” ......

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/11/sanders-voters-electable-2020-1489146

 

Any of the top Dem candidates would beat Trump

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https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/11/biden-down-polling-sanders-warren-1490447

 

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in the Democratic primary has been cut in half, according to a new poll out Wednesday, and while Biden still maintains his grip on frontrunner status, the CNN poll shows Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders incrementally creeping up on him.

 

The CNN poll shows a drop of 5 percentage points in support for Biden in the last three weeks, to 24 percent from 29 percent. The national survey of Democratic primary voters also saw Warren jump Sanders for second place, though the two are still within the margin of sampling error at 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

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Stick a fork in Castro. He is done for this cycle. Probably his last debate.

 

Beto can drop out and nobody would care. Klobuchar as well.

 

Booker is just treading water. Kamala was strong for a few weeks but is now treading water as well.

 

Yang tried to buy votes. Then again, that is what he wants to do anyway, even if it may be a good program or not. I actually like hearing Yang speak in interviews, though, and he is by far the most candid candidate in those settings. Debates - not so much. I think his star is faltering after last night.

 

Warren is solid but at the same time very bland and uninspiring to me. I do think she has the best chance to win, and she is the most prepared candidate in terms of policy. This was her worst debate IMO - but because she was so quiet, not because she was bad. When she gets to talk, she is very good.

 

The best/unintentionally funny thing Biden did last night was correct himself from saying TV by saying record player...well, that and the dentures. Its like he is trying to come off as ancient and out of touch to voters. That would have come off as "old man" in the 80s...its now almost 2020, and it sounds outright odd. I wish he would drop out of the race.

 

After this/October debate, I could see a few candidates dropping out like DeBlasio, Bullock, Bennett, Williamson and others who are just going nowhere fast. By the end of this year, I think there will only be 5-6 candidates still in this.

Edited by TitansFan777

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21 minutes ago, TitansFan777 said:

 

Warren is solid but at the same time very bland and uninspiring to me. I do think she has the best chance to win, and she is the most prepared candidate in terms of policy

 

I don't buy this line at all. The media keeps branding her as the "plans" candidate but until very recently her website had nothing at all about health care. Now she's got a blurb on there about supporting Medicare for All. She's been fairly noncommittal and vague on some other things as well. 

 

I'm still willing to cast a vote for her in the general, but the more I hear from her the harder that's gonna be. She's already put out some weird policy ideas like her means-tested student debt forgiveness plan and her No Child Left Behind-type plan for hospitals. Stuff like that and the fact that she'd be happily accepting corporate donor money will have me very disappointed should she get the nomination. 

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If you listen to Harry Enten's podcast he says that historically someone polling like Biden wins 35% of the time. He's far from inevitable at this point.

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8 hours ago, Titans279 said:

If you listen to Harry Enten's podcast he says that historically someone polling like Biden wins 35% of the time. He's far from inevitable at this point.

 

Hillary had a 20% lead over Obama, Dean had a big lead at this point and many more examples

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3 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

 

Hillary had a 20% lead over Obama, Dean had a big lead at this point and many more examples

 

None of those examples account for the fear of putting out a Trumpster fire of a presidency.  Then there’s the hyperpartisan tribalism of today to go along with a fully weaponized media echo chamber operating on every level.

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3 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

 

Hillary had a 20% lead over Obama, Dean had a big lead at this point and many more examples

 

Havent looked historically beyond 2016 and 2008 on this, but Trump and Hillary both had significant polling leads by this point in last race in their primaries.

 

Obama didnt gain a polling lead nationally until he won the Iowa caucus. 

 

The problem for Warren is this: black and blue collar voters I don’t think are going to switch to her if she wins Iowa and New Hampshire. I’d be highly surprised. Biden has a 30 point lead in the South Carolina primary and will lead in a lot of other southern states and Super Tuesday states. 

 

I fully expect that Warren could win Iowa and New Hampshire - activitist, white, and NH of course neighbors Vermont and MA. Warren and Bernie will perform well there. I think all Biden needs to do to win is place second in those states. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, begooode said:

 

None of those examples account for the fear of putting out a Trumpster fire of a presidency.  Then there’s the hyperpartisan tribalism of today to go along with a fully weaponized media echo chamber operating on every level.

 

Who all mostly love Warren and dislike Biden, which works in her favor. 

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2 minutes ago, tgo said:

 

Who all mostly love Warren and dislike Biden, which works in her favor. 

 

I think you’re missing the point on fear of Trump which Bidenis playing heavy on and benefiting from. That’s a key part of their strategy coupled with the Obama halo.

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