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Democratic Nomination for 2020 - UPDATED to include those who have officially announced


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2 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

Biden is essentially Clinton without the FBI investigations. I’ll take that. 

I disagree.  There was a lot of people that didn't really trust that Clinton was in for them, but rather herself.  They didn't know if they'd get the ham or the bone from her.  

 

I think Biden makes a much stronger case to the middle class.  

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Amigo, there has to be a transition that isn’t strictly Medicare for All, regardless of how the bill is written. I’ve supported Medicare for All for a long time now. I still support it. When speaking

I know some people don't want to hear it, but it's going to be Bernie and if it is, he's gonna win. 

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53 minutes ago, Rogue said:

I disagree.  There was a lot of people that didn't really trust that Clinton was in for them, but rather herself.  They didn't know if they'd get the ham or the bone from her.  

 

I think Biden makes a much stronger case to the middle class.  

True, but he’s taking money from the exact same people, so really your assertion is one of perception. 

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Its more than perception. Biden knows how to talk to the masses like Obama and Clinton did. Hillary struggled with it as she's a straight up policy wonk. They are not the same candidate because big money backs them.

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10 minutes ago, oldschool said:

Its more than perception. Biden knows how to talk to the masses like Obama and Clinton did. Hillary struggled with it as she's a straight up policy wonk. They are not the same candidate because big money backs them.

Well big money actually backs several other candidates in the race moreso, namely Buttigieg and Harris and Booker but point taken. 

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/

 

Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election

 

Here’s an interesting read from 2017 About Clinton’s ground game. 

 

“In fact, Clinton’s ground game advantage over Trump may have been as large as the one Obama had over Mitt Romney in 2012. It just wasn’t enough to save the Electoral College for her.”

 

“She received almost as many votes (65.85 million) as Obama had nationwide (65.92 million). But while she earned 900,000 more votes than Obama in California and almost 600,000 more in Texas, she underperformed him in the swing states.”

 

“....That strongly implies that the demographic commonalities between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — both of them have lots of white voters without college degrees — mattered a lot more than the difference in campaign tactics.”

 

“But studies from political scientists find the effects of a superior turnout operation to be quite modest in presidential elections 9 — usually overwhelmed by larger, macro-level factors. In 2012, for example, the condition of the economy probably mattered more than Obama’s turnout operation. And in 2016, all the news generated by Trump and the media circus surrounding him, plus major stories like the FBI’s investigation of Clinton, tended to drown out the candidates’ efforts at a piecemeal, coalition-building approach. You certainly can criticize Clinton for choosing an overall message that didn’t sell to white voters without college degrees.”

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7 hours ago, oldschool said:

Its more than perception. Biden knows how to talk to the masses like Obama and Clinton did. Hillary struggled with it as she's a straight up policy wonk. They are not the same candidate because big money backs them.

They support the exact same ideology. 

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8 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

They support the exact same ideology. 

You mean the same ideology the majority of the party supports? The vocal minority does not speak for the party...

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20 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

Only 12 % of democrats have decided who they want to be the nominee 

Yeah, saw that from one the of recent polls. The race is totally wide open. 

 

I think this field of candidates is very weak overall personally. 

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1 minute ago, tgo said:

Yeah, saw that from one the of recent polls. The race is totally wide open. 

 

I think this field of candidates is very weak overall personally. 

I’d say it’s incredibly strong considering after Hillary everyone was saying the Dems had no bench. Now there are about half a dozen really strong candidates, some old some much younger. And there are lots of good 2nd tier candidates who just can’t get traction because of the sheer number of candidates.

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20 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

I’d say it’s incredibly strong considering after Hillary everyone was saying the Dems had no bench. Now there are about half a dozen really strong candidates, some old some much younger. And there are lots of good 2nd tier candidates who just can’t get traction because of the sheer number of candidates.

half a dozen really? Biden and Warren are the only strong candidates at this point. Bernie is done and Harris is struggling to gain traction outside of Carolina with moderates.

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Good CNN article came out this morning - How Trump could win in 2020: Democrats nominate a very liberal candidate

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/politics/how-do-liberals-do-against-trump-2020-analysis/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-07-12T13%3A55%3A02&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social

 

"A hallmark study by Stanford University's Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson looking at congressional races from 2006 to 2014 demonstrated that more moderate candidates performed more strongly. This is because extreme candidates on one side tend to raise the opposition's turnout. (This runs counter to the argument that base candidates raise turnout to help their side win. Instead, it may be the opposite.) My own simple examination of the 2006-2018 House returns indicates that incumbents with more moderate voting records continued to have an advantage, once we control for a district's voting history and money spent by the campaigns."

 

"Clinton, meanwhile, was seen by voters as basically tied for the second most liberal Democratic presidential nominee since George McGovern in 1972. This may surprise a lot of people, but reports at the time of the Democratic National Convention noted how liberal the Democratic Party and her platform were. Clinton perhaps moved left to fight off Sanders."

 

"Nominating a very liberal candidate is a risky bet, though, especially given the polling so far. The well-known left candidates are doing worse than the more moderate one. Nominating one of them certainly strays from the playbook that Democrats used in the 2018 election to take back the House."

 

 

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5 minutes ago, oldschool said:

half a dozen really? Biden and Warren are the only strong candidates at this point. Bernie is done and Harris is struggling to gain traction outside of Carolina with moderates.

Warren is a strong candidate in the primary but don't see her beating Trump personally. And general election polls so far seem to indicate the same. 

 

Trump is actually getting stronger as time goes on rather than the other way around. IMO, The only way a progressive candidate could beat him is if he is impeached by the House or more *very* damaging info comes out, or the economy sinks, or he gets us into a war. Barring those things happening outright, I don't see him losing to Warren or Harris at all.  

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