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26 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEPOpMY-ViKWuqISEMm4QWZwqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow2Nb3CjDivdcCMM_rngY?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

 

And THAT is why I'm staying the fuck out, good or bad. Avoiding uncertainty and risk is good by me. It's been about two months and this is going a predicted 3-5 more before the peak and it could last 16 more months. No thanks on assuming this is the end.

 

But staying out forever is also a risk.  You have to get back in at some point or you're also "losing a bunch of money" on the way back up.

 

The trillion dollar question is when to get back in, aka where is the actual bottom?  Well no one knows for certain but everyone can speculate.  And at some point, fear mongering takes a back seat to hardcore financial data like assets and earnings.

 

Me personally, I think the lowest potential bottom is around 14-15k.  I'm not saying I think it will get there, I'm saying I don't believe it can possibly go lower.  One thing I can say for sure is that if we get to the sub 17k level, I will be going all in unless something crazy happens in the real world between now and then.

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14 minutes ago, abenjami said:

 

But staying out forever is also a risk.  You have to get back in at some point or you're also "losing a bunch of money" on the way back up.

 

The trillion dollar question is when to get back in, aka where is the actual bottom?  Well no one knows for certain but everyone can speculate.  And at some point, fear mongering takes a back seat to hardcore financial data like assets and earnings.

 

Me personally, I think the lowest potential bottom is around 14-15k.  I'm not saying I think it will get there, I'm saying I don't believe it can possibly go lower.  One thing I can say for sure is that if we get to the sub 17k level, I will be going all in unless something crazy happens in the real world between now and then.

I've said a number of times, I'm not trying to time anything. I'm avoiding uncertainty. If I don't enter at the bottom and maximize, I don't care. I'll still make money. Plenty of people will do better than me this time.

 

... but none of them will have blindly stayed in the market because they read it in a book.

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17 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

I've said a number of times, I'm not trying to time anything. I'm avoiding uncertainty. If I don't enter at the bottom and maximize, I don't care. I'll still make money. Plenty of people will do better than me this time.

 

... but none of them will have blindly stayed in the market because they read it in a book.

 

I get that but at what point do you get back in?  If the market shoots up to 30k and never comes back down, did you still make money?

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1 minute ago, abenjami said:

 

I get that but at what point do you get back in?  If the market shoots up to 30k and never comes back down, did you still make money?

Probably more time based than anything at this point. I originally shot for 20 and just live with whatever but this is pretty much unprecedented so I pulled back out. I don't know what the trigger is beyond feeling that we actually are starting to get a loose handle on how bad this will actually be and the market can adjust to that reality.

 

This rebound isn't based on that. It's a rebalancing of portfolios and $2T stimulus fever and worsening conditions on the ground. If I'd bought in, I'd sell now. The uncertainty is unchanged.

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2 hours ago, abenjami said:

 

But staying out forever is also a risk.  You have to get back in at some point or you're also "losing a bunch of money" on the way back up.

 

The trillion dollar question is when to get back in, aka where is the actual bottom?  Well no one knows for certain but everyone can speculate.  And at some point, fear mongering takes a back seat to hardcore financial data like assets and earnings.

 

Me personally, I think the lowest potential bottom is around 14-15k.  I'm not saying I think it will get there, I'm saying I don't believe it can possibly go lower.  One thing I can say for sure is that if we get to the sub 17k level, I will be going all in unless something crazy happens in the real world between now and then.


I heard today if this pullback went as far down as 08 the Dow would go to 12k+!

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You guys seem to be pros at this, any advice you could give to a novice? I've been doing stock trading for about 8 months and I've had some stocks double in price one quintuple, but I know I still have a ton to learn. Any general advice or good buys for when this is over? 

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39 minutes ago, 10 A See said:

You guys seem to be pros at this, any advice you could give to a novice? I've been doing stock trading for about 8 months and I've had some stocks double in price one quintuple, but I know I still have a ton to learn. Any general advice or good buys for when this is over? 

 

The only advice I'd give you on stock trading is not to do it. Unless it's extra money after you've set up a retirement account and you can afford to lose it. 

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On 7/24/2016 at 3:06 PM, TitanedUpSince'70 said:

This is risk enough right there.  With the break of the all time highs recently, the market in now supposedly in Wave 5 of the Elliot Wave.  There is no 'top out target' from here on.  It could 'theoretically' go to Dow 25k - 30k before it tops out, who knows. 

But even if it did top out near 30k before the next big correction, it may not go down to 17k again for many years after that, if ever.  Long time to hold a wad of cash and not put it to work.

Dropping from Dow 30k down to 17k again would be almost the same as it dropping from the Dow 18,500 range it's at now, back down to Dow 10k.  Long ways to drop with no known catalyst to get it there, as of yet anyway.

Good luck bro! lol  You may indeed time it right, or you may not.  You have good cash income coming in already, so you won't be hurting too bad either way.

 

Holy shit this is prophetic 

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On 3/27/2020 at 11:31 PM, abenjami said:

 And now because I took this risk and gutted it out, in the end I am going to own a lot more shares than I would have.

 

 

Let's be clear about something. 

 

Your original goal was get out because the market was reaching a high, you're premise was to jump out at a  near high and get back in below 17k. 

 

From you in this thread: "Sell at the high, wait for the fall, buy back in. "

 

You sold at 18,300, the market rose another 3.5 years and 11k on the dow. 

 

Timing the market consist of two parts. Getting out and then getting back in. 

 

You have completed one part, getting out as close to the high as possible. That was a complete failure. We're still waiting for part two, getting back in. 

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16 hours ago, Jamalisms said:

 One of us lost a bunch of money and the other didn't.

 

Shares have decreased in value(which happened constantly in the market), I haven't lost a dime. If I sell at some point in the future at a lower price than I purchased them then yes I will have lost money. 

 

We'll see if over the next 10 years plus if these shares are higher than they were at the high in Feb. 

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19 hours ago, abenjami said:

 

He would rather buy now at $21k rather than the $7k he could have bought at in 2009?

 

The best buying opportunities of our lifetimes are all way in the past.

 

First of all you cannot buy in 09, it's gone. 

 

What he talked about is usually when the market falls like this it's because of something structurally wrong with the banking system/economy, like in 08, we were seriously near the brink of an economic collapse. 

 

The economy was strong, a virus forced everyone to stop consuming and stop working. When this ends it will go back theoretically. 

 

We'll see.  

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16 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

 

First of all you cannot buy in 09, it's gone. 

 

What he talked about is usually when the market falls like this it's because of something structurally wrong with the banking system/economy, like in 08, we were seriously near the brink of an economic collapse. 

 

The economy was strong, a virus forced everyone to stop consuming and stop working. When this ends it will go back theoretically. 

 

We'll see.  

 

After this virus the world is going to turn away from neo liberal globalism.  The global economy is going to take a hit, and the world will be a more dangerous place.

 

I think the Pax Americana is over.

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56 minutes ago, patsplat said:

After this virus the world is going to turn away from neo liberal globalism. 

 

You have too much faith. I'd love for this to be true, it would actually help the middle class and economy but it's highly unlikely you're right. 

 

Look at the stimulus bill just passed, look at the Feds actions, look at the politicians. All designed to prop up the status quo. 

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Just now, OILERMAN said:

 

You have too much faith. I'd love for this to be true, it would actually help the middle class and economy but it's highly unlikely you're right. 

 

Look at the stimulus bill just passed, look at the Feds actions, look at the politicians. All designed to prop up the status quo. 

 

The status quo is being broken right now.  That stimulus bill will be rendered impotent in a month.

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20 minutes ago, patsplat said:

 

The status quo is being broken right now.  That stimulus bill will be rendered impotent in a month.

 

They've already said they will keep churning out new bills depending on how long it lasts

 

How funny is it the 1200 is just an advance on your return next year and you can take out 100k from your own 401k, which is down big right now 

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