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I'm going to liquidate my portfolio


abenjami

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Jfc are you a boomer? Here...    

This is one of the problems.... It could go higher for much longer and/or when you get in it could go lower much longer..... You have to guess right twice

Way back when Bush was president he signed this https://theweek.com/articles/767184/how-george-bush-broke-post-office   Around the same time my house flooded, home insurance doesn't cover fl

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11 minutes ago, abenjami said:

 

True. But I will long before the break even point. 

 

lol Man, I haven't read that whole thread or anything, but if you got out last time where you said you did the other day, if the market goes down and retests the low, you'll be so tempted to see if it goes lower, that you'll probably miss the bottom again like this mini bottom that just happened and the market takes off again! LOL

 

The guy that does my taxes does that shit all the time!  I tell him "hey man, the market (or any stock really) just did a 10% correction, you buying more here right?  90% of the time he thinks it will go lower and almost always he gets burned. lol

 

I just say fuck it, like I did on this bottom and start buying the hell out of shit.  If it goes lower, then I just try to buy more until I finally run out of funds and just wait it out.  

Edited by OilerTitanHybrid
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3 minutes ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

 

lol Man, I haven't read that whole thread or anything, but if you got out last time where you said you did the other day, if the market goes down and retests the low, you'll be so tempted to see if it goes lower, that you'll probably miss the bottom again like this mini bottom that just happened and the market takes off again! LOL

 

The guy that does my taxes does that shit all the time!  I tell him "hey man, the market (or any stock really) just did a 10% correction, you buying more here right?  90% of the time he thinks it will go lower and almost always he gets burned. lol

I just say fuck it, like I did on this bottom and start buying the hell out of shit.  If it goes lower than I just try to buy more until I finally run out of funds and just wait it out.  

 

I hear you but I have my limit. And realistically I don't think there's any way we bottom out far enough for it to make that huge a difference. 

 

I flopped 4 Ace's. I'm going to bleed it a bit and see what happens on the turn, but I'm all in before the river. 

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7 minutes ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

 

lol Man, I haven't read that whole thread or anything, but if you got out last time where you said you did the other day, if the market goes down and retests the low, you'll be so tempted to see if it goes lower, that you'll probably miss the bottom again like this mini bottom that just happened and the market takes off again! LOL

 

The guy that does my taxes does that shit all the time!  I tell him "hey man, the market (or any stock really) just did a 10% correction, you buying more here right?  90% of the time he thinks it will go lower and almost always he gets burned. lol

 

I just say fuck it, like I did on this bottom and start buying the hell out of shit.  If it goes lower, then I just try to buy more until I finally run out of funds and just wait it out.  

 

That was the whole point of the dollar cost averaging article. 

 

I saw another one that showed if you invested 10k a year for 20 years. The 3 options were:

 

A. 10k on Jan 1 every year

 

B. You bought in at the low point every year

 

C. You bought in at the high point every year. 

 

If you went back like 80 years and figured it for every rolling 20 year period the difference in the 3 choices were minimal. If you increase the frequency of the buy points they shrink even more. 

 

People can't seem to accept investing in this easy but it really is. 

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8 minutes ago, abenjami said:

I flopped 4 Ace's. I'm going to bleed it a bit and see what happens on the turn, but I'm all in before the river. 

 

4 years later and a great depression like event and you're still not below your sell point, I'm missing the 4 aces in this scenario. 

 

You'd be better off had you just stayed in the whole time 

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2 minutes ago, abenjami said:

 

I hear you but I have my limit. And realistically I don't think there's any way we bottom out far enough for it to make that huge a difference. 

 

Yeah we're pretty good right where it bottomed there I think.  You should be ok.  Hopefully this isn't some stupid long ass correction for years.  Can't be wasting this next market run up though, because this drop was so nice, when this pos market finally takes off,  the next run up should be a good one for awhile.

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1 minute ago, OILERMAN said:

 

4 years later and a great depression like event and you're still not below your sell point, I'm missing the 4 aces in this scenario. 

 

You'd be better off had you just stayed in the whole time 

 

Yeah, his ultimate scenario would have been if he had kept buying, then said WHOA at the top when he saw the shit coming, then got out there.  Then he would have had like two or three times his cash to buy more down here. lol  But, I digress!

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Just now, OilerTitanHybrid said:

 

Yeah, his ultimate scenario would have been if he had kept buying, then said WHOA at the top when he saw the shit coming, then got out there.  Then he would have had like two or three times his cash to buy more down here. lol  But, I digress!

 

No one sees "The shit coming". He thought 4 years ago it would go below 17k, it got to 30k and still hasn't gotten below 17k

 

You should have just stopped right here:

 

Yeah, his ultimate scenario would have been if he had kept buying

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2 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

 

No one sees "The shit coming". He thought 4 years ago it would go below 17k, it got to 30k and still hasn't gotten below 17k

 

You should have just stopped right here:

 

Yeah, his ultimate scenario would have been if he had kept buying

 

I'm sure there are people that got out with some of their wad as stuff was slowly happening on the first drop or two, but people like me, you, Buffett, etc. don't really care.  We just buy more lower.  I know what you're saying though.

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2 minutes ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

 

I'm sure there are people that got out with some of their wad as stuff was slowly happening on the first drop or two

 

Sure it would have been easy to get out before it went down a lot further, 

 

But look at Jamal, has no clue when to get back in now. He was griping in another thread a few days ago how the market isn't acting like it should be. No shit, that's why you don't time it

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3 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

 

4 years later and a great depression like event and you're still not below your sell point, I'm missing the 4 aces in this scenario. 

 

You'd be better off had you just stayed in the whole time 

 

The DJIA actually did hit my sell point last week.  But keep in mind both my actual sell point and "it will go below 17k" were based on the DJIA, which is more of a point of reference that defines the overall market as opposed to a real investment.  None of my original portfolio was invested in the DJIA.

 

At the bottom point of this crash (so far) last week, 5 of my 10 original investments were already in the money, meaning they had dropped below the price point I had sold them at 3.5 years ago.  Another 3 were dancing the line and I was <$1,500 of being even on the original portfolio.  The only reason the original portfolio wasn't in the money at that point in time was due to QQQ and VGT being so good they hadn't fallen far enough yet.

 

You are correct that as of right now, my original portfolio would have been better off had I just stayed in the whole time.  But had I stayed in the whole time, I also would have been dumping more money into a rising market as I explained in that post last week.  On a net basis of original portfolio + new contributions, I'm WAY ahead at this point.  The losses I would have suffered with my new contributions are way greater than the losses my original portfolio has absorbed.  Although this was not the original way I intended to make a nice return, this is the benefit I got for gutting this out 3.5 years instead of giving up and buying in the rising market.

 

The 4 Aces at this point means the only way I can lose is to be stupid enough to let some chump chasing a straight flush hit it on the river (i.e. I don't go all in before the market springs back up).

 

 

3 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

 

No one sees "The shit coming". He thought 4 years ago it would go below 17k, it got to 30k and still hasn't gotten below 17k

 

You should have just stopped right here:

 

Yeah, his ultimate scenario would have been if he had kept buying

 

No, my ultimate scenario would not have been if I had kept buying.  My ultimate scenario was accurately described by @OilerTitanHybrid below:

 

3 hours ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

 

Yeah, his ultimate scenario would have been if he had kept buying, then said WHOA at the top when he saw the shit coming, then got out there.  Then he would have had like two or three times his cash to buy more down here. lol  But, I digress!

 

But that's not just my ultimate scenario, that's EVERYONE's ultimate scenario.

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@OILERMANI have never disagreed with your strategy.  I've even flat out admitted it's the tried and true way to achieve safe returns over time.  I actually heard an analyst today say something like if you were out of the market on the 10 best days over the past 20 years, you lost 40% of the potential gains.  Generally speaking, there's no doubt you want to be in the market and not out of the market, because over time the market has always gone up.  What you said about # of shares is completely true.  And now because I took this risk and gutted it out, in the end I am going to own a lot more shares than I would have.

 

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BTW, I was very close to being heavily reinvested last week.  I had a number of limit orders entered that came very close to execution but just never quite got there.

 

For example, I had a large SBUX order to buy at $50.  It got down to $50.02 and but didn't hit the mark.  Do I wish I had bought at $50.02?  Yes, absolutely.  I was also within a dollar or two of buying some DIS, HD and AAPL but those didn't get to my price point either.

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