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I'm going to liquidate my portfolio


abenjami

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27 minutes ago, abenjami said:

 

I'm not surprised about the unemployment data being a non-factor.  I think a lot of people (myself included) believe this will be a fast rebound once the height of the virus passes.

 

The real question at this point is will there be one more big pull back or should those with cash be going all in now before it never stops going up?  I'm thinking Friday will be interesting.  If it's anything like 2008 or last Friday, there will be a mass sell-off to avoid holding positions into the weekend.

Gotta admit, this lil rally stings a bit. I closed my main money market account when the dow was around 20.5k. I am gambling for a really big pulldown in the next month to get back in. 

 

We still have scary earnings reports coming, a recession knocking on the door, and a now red-hot fire of a debt-crisis that everyone is selectively ignoring for the time being. Fundamentally, there is no logical reason that the market as a whole would ever rise back to the level it was at. 

 

 

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Jfc are you a boomer? Here...    

This is one of the problems.... It could go higher for much longer and/or when you get in it could go lower much longer..... You have to guess right twice

Way back when Bush was president he signed this https://theweek.com/articles/767184/how-george-bush-broke-post-office   Around the same time my house flooded, home insurance doesn't cover fl

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53 minutes ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

Don't fret kiddos, not everyone is good enough to buy back in at the bottom like I did.  :D  Well, except that Bill Ackman guy, who sunk 2.5 billion back into the market right after I bought in!  Thought leaders unite!  X Men Unite!

 

Loooogggaaannnn!!!

I just hope you made a large mint on Chipotle. If you had cash and an account to pounce on that timing, kudos. 

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9 minutes ago, Downtown said:

I just hope you made a large mint on Chipotle. If you had cash and an account to pounce on that timing, kudos. 

 

Oh ya man, CMG was a no brainer at those prices.  But truthfully, I didn't sell all my stuff at the top or anything.  This money I put back in, is just cash that I had, or was able to free up, to buy more stuff.  I still had most of my holdings in the market like Buffett does and Olierman does.  I don't try to time stuff from my main holdings much.  I just try to add as much to it as I can when a black swan event like this happens, or even a good normal 10-15% retrace.

 

The Buffett/Oilerman/OTH system has been good to me for years.  I ain't gonna fuck it up.  I just try to add as much as possible when this stuff happens.  I sleep good at night now, while a lot of people are freaking out.  Keep plugging away out there Oilerman!  It's gonna be worth it in 10 years!  Looogggaaannn!!!

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9 hours ago, abenjami said:

The real question at this point is will there be one more big pull back or should those with cash be going all in now before it never stops going up?

 

The real question is did we have a massive market drop of historic proportion and you not get back in and salvage the massive mistime? 

 

What if it only goes up from here? Not a prediction, I have no clue. 

 

What will have been the worst move, getting out at 18,300 originally or not getting back in when it was around that mark last week?

 

 

You actually got it!

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9 hours ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

Don't fret kiddos, not everyone is good enough to buy back in at the bottom like I did.  :D  Well, except that Bill Ackman guy, who sunk 2.5 billion back into the market right after I bought in!  Thought leaders unite!  X Men Unite!

 

Loooogggaaannnn!!!

 

logan.jpg

 

 

 

I bought on the 15th but it's not like it was a big deal or something. *yawn*

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I still haven't got the last of my dividends and I always wait until right after the first to buy so I'm hoping Abenjami is right(NO!) and the market sells off tomorrow and has another big drop before I buy. 

 

Unless it's another couple of really big days I'll still be getting much cheaper shares than the previous highs. 

 

The beauty of just dollar cost averaging in is you don't have to try and guess anything. You just buy

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1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

 

The real question is did we have a massive market drop of historic proportion and you not get back in and salvage the massive mistime? 

 

What if it only goes up from here? Not a prediction, I have no clue. 

 

What will have been the worst move, getting out at 18,300 originally or not getting back in when it was around that mark last week?

 

 

I did make a few purchases last week at the right time.

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This is the "Too Good To Be True" rally.  The market in still jittery and any bad news is going to hit it worse than usual.  My hope is this gets corrected and doesn't roll over into the real estate market.  If that happens in conjunction with a pandemic there is no way to figure out the future.

 

My latest idea in they may have to revalue currency world wide and institute price freezes.  A split, with severe penalties for price gouging.  Even illegal businesses would have to hold prices.  This would take major enforcement.  Money has no value.  But it is our medium of exchange.  If they split money, say 7 for 5.  Everyone would have more dollars to pay off all the losses from the pandemic.  Back rent, car notes, mortgages, jet skis.  Everybody is made hole with the new funny money.  It would still have the same real value, worthless.  But people would have peace of mind.  

 

Think of homeowners being 4 months behind.  They don't earn enough to catch up back payments because R.E. agents and mortgage lenders get people to max out their borrowing ability when they purchase a home.  How many people are savers?  Those that are don't want to pay it all for worldwide disaster.  The people who have all the money will still have all the money, nothing is changed.  Everybody goes on as usual.  It's just like when they stopped using the gold standard.**

 

They could waive debt, but we are selfish.  Jojo owed 185K and I only owed 33K.   Some smart person will have to figure this out.  America has this huge deficit.  But they are giving out trillions upon trillions to prop up the economy.  Where are they getting the money to pass out?  They are just printing more.  Everybody is printing money.**

 

**https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2004/april/money-supply-currency-counterfeit/

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8 minutes ago, ChemEngr79 said:

At some point in the next week, I am pretty sure the market will start paying attention to the "pile of bodies"...

 

Futures are down reportedly because of the amount of new cases. 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, ChemEngr79 said:

USA added ~17k new cases and > 200 new deaths yesterday. The exponential rate is still accelerating...

 

At some point in the next week, I am pretty sure the market will start paying attention to the "pile of bodies"...

 

 

I posted these in another thread yesterday.

 

image.png.838536bdd8c0fb6b3092df0a2c2a8f9c.png

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