Jump to content

I'm going to liquidate my portfolio


abenjami

Recommended Posts

On 7/24/2016 at 12:48 AM, abenjami said:

However, I can tell you three things for sure.

1.  At some point in the relatively near future, it will go down below 17,000 again.

2.  From a long term perspective, it will go back up afterwards.

3.  None of us are going to be able to time it perfectly.

People often get too wrapped up in advanced analytics that they miss the obvious and forget basic economic principles.  Buy low, sell high.  The market is higher than it's ever been right now.

I'm liquidating and waiting for the fall.  When the time seems right, I will dump my wad of cash back in at a lower price point.

We're a couple of weeks shy of this post being 3 years old. 

 

The market(Dow, which you used) was around 17k, it's now just barely under 27k. 

 

At this point it would take a 37% fall to get back down to 17k, certainly not impossible. The only question is how much higher will it go before we get another pull back. 

 

Rate of return for DOW:

 

2016: 13.42%

2017: 25.08%

2018: -5.63%

2019 year to date: 15.60%

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Jfc are you a boomer? Here...    

This is one of the problems.... It could go higher for much longer and/or when you get in it could go lower much longer..... You have to guess right twice

Way back when Bush was president he signed this https://theweek.com/articles/767184/how-george-bush-broke-post-office   Around the same time my house flooded, home insurance doesn't cover fl

Posted Images

16 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

We're a couple of weeks shy of this post being 3 years old. 

 

The market(Dow, which you used) was around 17k, it's now just barely under 27k. 

 

At this point it would take a 37% fall to get back down to 17k, certainly not impossible. The only question is how much higher will it go before we get another pull back. 

 

Rate of return for DOW:

 

2016: 13.42%

2017: 25.08%

2018: -5.63%

2019 year to date: 15.60%

The question isn't how much higher, the question is how long until the pull back.

Link to post
Share on other sites

There hasn't been a real pull back since 08. Now politicians and the Fed seem intent on making sure the markets keep going up with stock buy backs(the tax cuts), monetary easing and keeping interest rates low. 

 

How long can they keep doing it? 1 more year, 5, 10? Who the hell knows

Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

There hasn't been a real pull back since 08. Now politicians and the Fed seem intent on making sure the markets keep going up with stock buy backs(the tax cuts), monetary easing and keeping interest rates low. 

 

How long can they keep doing it? 1 more year, 5, 10? Who the hell knows

 

They can keep doing it until policy changes, something in the house of cards breaks down, or something crazy like another terrorist attack happens.

 

The last pull back was more than 50% in less than 18 months.  It all began when the housing market took a dump due to the subprime mortgages and the Fed having to bail out Fannie, Freddie, and a couple of large banks.

 

I certainly wasn't expecting it to take this long though, especially with Trump in office.

Link to post
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, abenjami said:

They can keep doing it until policy changes, something in the house of cards breaks down, or something crazy like another terrorist attack happens.

We've had Brexit, Trump getting elected, interest rate raises and tariffs threat, experts said those events might do it. Nada. 

 

It's usually something people don't see coming though

Link to post
Share on other sites

On 5/14/2019 at 2:05 PM, Number9 said:

I started watching MAXR a few weeks ago.  I took a full position in it on a spike up at the high of the day 5/3/19, 6.50.  I regretted not starting sooner.  I placed another order for a fall back in the 5's.  I bought again yesterday near the high @7.50.  I have seen stocks like this before, hesitation is a killer.  This security has a historical high in the 80's.  I hesitate to share because the market is fickle, but in my opinion this is an easy triple.  My plan is to double my original position, then sell half when I am up 100%.  I then let it ride.  I am already up 36% on my total investment.

 

These types stocks you don't know about until the story is over.  I have learned not to wait.  I still have my order to buy on a pullback to 5.50, but I doubt it's going to fill.

I added more today @8.85.  Plenty time left, weeks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...
29 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

Broad markets funds did anywhere from 20-30 % for the year 

 

 

 

It's going to be interesting to see what happens during election time.  Trump has a history of leaving a path of shit when he exits.  If he loses the election, will the market crash?

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, abenjami said:

 

It's going to be interesting to see what happens during election time.  Trump has a history of leaving a path of shit when he exits.  If he loses the election, will the market crash?

 

 

 

He deleted this but are you predicting your 409k will go down?

 

Donald J. Trump (realDonaldTrump)

STOCK MARKET AT ALL-TIME HIGH! HOW ARE YOUR 409K’S DOING? 70%, 80%, 90% up? Only 50% up! What are you doing wrong?

Link to post
Share on other sites

409k LOL

 

But that's sort of where my post was headed.  Trump might have deleted his tweet but there's no denying the market has skyrocketed during his presidency.

 

What happens if a democrat wins the election?  I think it crashes.

Edited by abenjami
Link to post
Share on other sites

On 5/14/2019 at 2:05 PM, Number9 said:

I started watching MAXR a few weeks ago.  I took a full position in it on a spike up at the high of the day 5/3/19, 6.50.  I regretted not starting sooner.  I placed another order for a fall back in the 5's.  I bought again yesterday near the high @7.50.  I have seen stocks like this before, hesitation is a killer.  This security has a historical high in the 80's.  I hesitate to share because the market is fickle, but in my opinion this is an easy triple.  My plan is to double my original position, then sell half when I am up 100%.  I then let it ride.  I am already up 36% on my total investment.

 

These types stocks you don't know about until the story is over.  I have learned not to wait.  I still have my order to buy on a pullback to 5.50, but I doubt it's going to fill.

MAXR closed today @18.86.   You may never hear of this company, but it's under heavy accumulation.  I'm up 175%.

Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, abenjami said:

409k LOL

 

But that's sort of where my post was headed.  Trump might have deleted his tweet but there's no denying the market has skyrocketed during his presidency.

 

What happens if a democrat wins the election?  I think it crashes.

 

People said the market would crash if Obama was elected and said the same thing when Trump was elected 

Link to post
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...