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Player Slot Review


charleytolar

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Here was my Titan draft prediction, after a swap with the Jets, based on the known record of visits with the Titans: 

                                        Prediction     Actual     Differential

Darron Lee, LB                    20                20            0

Vonn Bell, S                         33                 61          +28 (over-drafted)

Jason Spriggs, OT               43                 48           + 5

Leontee Caroo, WR            45                 86           +41

Xavien Howard, CB            51                  38          -13 (under-drafted)

Yanick Ngboue, LB             64                  69          +5

Nick Vannett, TE                 76                  84           +8

Caleb Benenoch, OL          140                148         +8

DJ Reader, DL                      193                166         -27

Keenan Reynolds, RB         222                182         -40

                                                                                     +15 NET meaning I over-drafted (over-valued) players by 15 total slot points

 

Forget getting the right player to the right team. When I reviewed my alternate draft after the trade down with the Jets, ignoring Titan visits, I got a -139 over-draft rating but 106 of those negative points came when I had the Titans taking a flyer on Jaylon Smith in the 5th round... when he went early in the 2nd to the Cowboys.

20 William Jackson, CB (24)

33 Cody Whitehair, OL (56)

43 Noah Spence, EDGE (39)

45 Karl Joseph, SS (13)

51 Chris Jones, DL (37)

64 Sterllng Shepard, WR (40)

76 LeRaven Clark, OT (82)

140 Jaylon Smith, LB (34)

153 Cody Core, WR (199)

222 Keenan Reynolds, RB (182)

So, in this scenario, I would have over-drafted Whitehair amongst the premium picks and under-drafted Karl Joseph, Chris Jones and Sterling Shepard.

All-in-all,  even though I got a haul of undervalued picks in this alternate draft, I like the real Titan draft haul better-- even with the loss of the extra second-round pick "acquired" from the Jets-- #51.

Leave it to the pros but let us have our fun!

 

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This thread is pure gold!

Missed the whole point.  No one gives a shit about where you slotted versus where they went.  Some of these guys could have gone three rounds earlier or three rounds later based on who was drafting th

What's the point of this thread?  I clicked on it thinking it was about the Titans' draft picks.  Then it turned out to be about someone's shitty mock.

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One of the mock drafts that so many of you went ga-ga over has a +223++++ rating: meaning the players in this mock were over-drafted BIG TIME, i.e. the first-round pick in this mock actually went in the fourth round and our last three picks went completely undrafted, thus the ++++

They did not take the hard hit of a Jaylon Smith surprise early pick either which accounted for most of my high under-drafting points in my non-visit accounted-for mock.

It's a mock you could live with if you had slotted his mock pick 2-33 as 1-20 and 3-64 as 2-33 and 2-60 as 2-43 and 2-53 as 2-45 as and 3-82 as 2-60 and pick 1-20 as 3-64. The other three picks in this mock went as undrafted free agents-- thus the ++++ remark.

Resorting this  mock, 1-20 would have been Karl Joseph, 2-33 Sterling Shepard, 2-43 Kameil Correa, 2-45 S'ua Cravens, 2-60 (by trade) LaRaven Clark and 3-64 Anthony Billings.

That's a mock most of us probably like pretty well.... except that it misses some of our major needs and the last three picks in rounds 5-7 ended up being undrafted free agents.

Not to knock the mock. The slide of the first-round pick was crushing, but I got to take my hat off to all who slobbered over it and called it the best mock done by posters. Both of mine were luckily more accurate with regard to where players actually were slotted by all 32 teams.

:popcorn:... in your head, cold and dark! Not bad for a guy who, some say (and you know who you are), doesn't know jack-shit...

Edited by charleytolar
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I'm not sure that type of grading system makes sense.

The over drafting and under drafting just offset each other.  The final "score" could be great for a terrible mock if the amount of over/under drafting balanced each other out.

It seems like a more accurate way to score a mock would be to use only positive numbers.  Just take the difference between the projected and actual for each pick, regardless of the direction.

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1 hour ago, wiscotitansfan said:

You whiffed on the 2nds in terms of value. Pretty sure that's how we got to worst record in the NFL.

Whiffed? Maybe, maybe not. It's way more complicated. The value of this draft bulged in the 2nd-3rd rounds which means that exact slotting was not as important because with players pretty equally ranked teams were likely giving greater consideration to need over absolute value. For example, too many players with 2nd round grades means that some will have to slip into the third round OR too few players with 2nd round grades that some third-round grades have to get pushed up into the 2nd round.

I guess we could look at the trading activity. How many teams traded out of the 2nd round and at what price? Obviously for some team to trade out of the 2nd round, some team has to trade into the 2nd round. Did people over- or under-pay to move up or down in any round? There you would have to rely upon some draft value chart.

My Bell/Spriggs/Caroo/Howard Second Round ended up with a +61 rating-- meaning I over-reached on three of those picks but only Caroo did not go in the second round. He went a round and a third later (41 picks) than in my mock. So the league didn't agree with me there! Tyler Boyd was picked at 2-55 and then no more WRs for thirty picks-- nearly a full round of drafting: Braxton Miller at 3-85 followed by Carroo at 3-86.

Whitehair/Spence/Joseph/Jones second-round draft ended up with a -27 rating. Whitehair wen later than I picked him, but he still went in the second round. Joseph, Spence and Jones went earlier than I picked them: Joseph by a lot (39 spots), Jones by a bunch (14 spots) and Spence by a few (4 spots).

This is a measure of how closely the mock picks went to where the entire league "selected" them. A perfectly accurate mock would have a ZERO adjusted slot score, so the closer you are to zero, the better the slotting of players in your mock. A differential made up of a compilation smaller numbers would indicate a better mock, I would think, but any targeting of either players by design or positions by need is going to distort things.

One of my mocks got racked by a 106 point differential when the Cowboys surprisingly nabbed Jaylon Smith near the top of round two. The other mock got killed with it projected the 1-20 pick as a guy who actually went 4-122 and so a 102 slot point differential.

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You only missed two or three players by a round plus of where they were actually drafted.  That's supposed to make this a good mock draft?

GTFO with that weak shit.  If that's how we graded mock drafts then everyone would have tried to guess value better.  Instead, they project value that *might* be a spot a draft pick to try and produce the best picks for the Titans.  It's all guess work.  

Trying to guess where guys will realistically be slotted is far easier.  

This was a terrible draft.  No shit we like the Titans picks better.

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18 minutes ago, wiscotitansfan said:

Eh sure. Your whole premise was that your draft was pretty close to the NFL and yet your 2nd round is where you lost all your value based on this thread. 

Eh, this is a wholistic analysis so it has fallacies. My -15 overall score translates to being off by an average of two draft spots on each of 7 picks. It's not a premise; it was math. My second-round took mostly second-rounders but in a different order.

I wonder how many of the NFL war room mock drafts got a 0 differential score? ZERO I bet! I wonder how many got a +/- 15 or better? A lot I'm sure. They're the pros.

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37 minutes ago, Justafan said:

You only missed two or three players by a round plus of where they were actually drafted.  That's supposed to make this a good mock draft?

GTFO with that weak shit.  If that's how we graded mock drafts then everyone would have tried to guess value better.  Instead, they project value that *might* be a spot a draft pick to try and produce the best picks for the Titans.  It's all guess work.  

Trying to guess where guys will realistically be slotted is far easier.  

This was a terrible draft.  No shit we like the Titans picks better.

Hey justagrump, show me a mock that doesn't miss on some picks by a wide margin. The one everyone was lauding gave us a first round pick that actually went in the fourth round and you're ragging on me because I undervalued Karl Joseph by 39 picks instead of 102 ?! :rolleyes:  Yeah, we all liked that one mock that had us taking 5 players who ended up going Round One in Rounds One, Two and Three. Those are easy to like...

Everyone knows it's all guess work.

Guessing where they were going to be slotted is not what I was aiming for; that's only what I did in retrospect. It's a way of comparing what I thought should happen with what the entire league actually made happen.

Like everyone, I was trying to pick for the Titans based on an educated guess about where players were valued and then factored in Titan needs-- that's what everyone did. Am I going to have to dig yours out and do the work for you? 

If yours beat mine, congratulations. All I was trying to do was disprove all the haters who keep saying that I know nothing and implying that they know everything by giving them a dose of reality. It's hard to predict the sudden rise of a player who missed most of the season with a knee injury. If Joseph or Jaylon Smith hadn't been picked so early, my +/- would have rocked on both my drafts.

C'mon you can afford to give me a little credit....

Edited by charleytolar
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12 minutes ago, charleytolar said:

Eh, this is a wholistic analysis so it has fallacies. My -15 overall score translates to being off by an average of two draft spots on each of 7 picks. It's not a premise; it was math. My second-round took mostly second-rounders but in a different order.

I wonder how many of the NFL war room mock drafts got a 0 differential score? ZERO I bet! I wonder how many got a +/- 15 or better? A lot I'm sure. They're the pros.

You're an idiot. EVERY single war room got a 0.

 

They picked every single player exactly where they went

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Just now, wiscotitansfan said:

You're an idiot. EVERY single war room got a 0.

 

They picked every single player exactly where they went

Boy do you lack imagination. They do entire mock drafts for every team. Those are the ones to which I was referred. Jeez!

Is that the best you got? To claim a victory through deliberate misunderstanding?

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I just think this premise is completely ridiculous. Being +40 on one and -40 another doesn't make it a good mock. It means you were horribly off

You had plenty mid rounds off by 8 but you literally have half a round window to be off by that

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