SleepingTitan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 33 minutes ago, stats said: While I'm interested, as a statistician, to see how this proceeds, there are major challenges innate to analyzing football plays. There are so many interactions among players and elements in the progression of a play, isolating and quantifying anything as a truly independent variable (utilized to some degree in "Moneyball" and necessary in most legitimate inferential statistics in general) is tough. Video capture technology and AI may be able to push this into reality, but I'm initially skeptical, as football embraced information technology early on (see Landry's Cowboys IIRC), eschewing the very things that Moneyball is attempting to show as unreliable (scouts looking for "the look" and other hueristics in potential players). That said, let's see what the kid can do. ...This is the Browns, however, so I anticipate the continued burning of Cleveland's eternal flame: the dumpster fire. Unlike baseball where all the actions are separate, isolated. Football is more akin to weather prediction, chaos theory. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 46 minutes ago, apocalypse33 said: I'm all for it if it's doable. yeah i agree, other than this gut though...i just dont know who those guys are. if i was a higher up, i'd see what I could do to get a stanford/MIT analytics class to create a project on it. You get at least some meaningful data while hopefully identifying a few very bright candidates to bring in and look in depth for missed opportunities and diamonds in the rough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NashvilleNinja Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'd like to laugh, but when I take glance at the standings I can see us "winning" the tie-breaker with the Browns for worst record in the league. Speaking of which, who knew that week 2 loss at the time would come back to benefit us so much? Here's to hoping Underwood does a better hiring job. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Face Posted January 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Like others have said, so much of football numbers are tied into other factors, mainly a players supporting cast. In baseball, if a guy hits .320 & 35 dongers, he's a great hitter. If a pitcher has a 2.20 ERA & a K per inning, he's a great pitcher. Period. Perhaps home stadium plays a factor in this but unless it's Colorado it's really a very fractional influence. Being a lefty at Yankee stadium & righty in Boston, yes, things like that have to be factored in. But by & large you know whose a good baseball player by their numbers. Not so in football. You really need to watch the tape. How many times have we seen a DT basically put up zero stat line yet totally dominate a game? Or a DE get 2 sacks but totally suck? Or a RB have a great year statistically but not really help his team, because the OL was so good? You really do need to watch the tape. abenjami 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
apocalypse33 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just now, Face said: Like others have said, so much of football numbers are tied into other factors, mainly a players supporting cast. In baseball, if a guy hits .320 & 35 dongers, he's a great hitter. If a pitcher has a 2.20 ERA & a K per inning, he's a great pitcher. Period. Perhaps home stadium plays a factor in this but unless it's Colorado it's really a very fractional influence. Being a lefty at Yankee stadium & righty in Boston, yes, things like that have to be factored in. But by & large you know whose a good baseball player by their numbers. Not so in football. You really need to watch the tape. How many times have we seen a DT basically put up zero stat line yet totally dominate a game? Or a DE get 2 sacks but totally suck? Or a RB have a great year statistically but not really help his team, because the OL was so good? You really do need to watch the tape. As I said before, you can't assume he won't watch the tape. Even in baseball, no one says scouting isn't valuable, it's pairing the scouting with the data that really gets the best results. A lot of of recent baseball breakouts are due to mechanical adjustments. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
begooode Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 dongers? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Face Posted January 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 1 minute ago, begooode said: dongers? Yeah I have a few different lingo words for HR's. Some of them can also double as nicknames for your dick. woolfolksunclesuncle, and helimachoptor 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rns90 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, Face said: Yeah I have a few different lingo words for HR's. Some of them can also double as nicknames for your dick. I believe one of the KC announcers refers to a HR as a "hung dong". He was also busted a few years ago for carrying weed in an airport. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrill Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 This is interesting because Chip Kelly is also a huge numbers guy... Maybe pairing the two could really be something special. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Face Posted January 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) 2 minutes ago, rns90 said: I believe one of the KC announcers refers to a HR as a "hung dong". He was also busted a few years ago for carrying weed in an airport. Good for him. The best was Steve Howe being suspended 9 times for cocaine. Edited January 5, 2016 by Face Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
freakingeek Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Larry Schmittou for GM!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rns90 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, Face said: Good for him. The best was Steve Howe being suspended 9 times for cocaine. And they kept on letting him back in and reinstating him. That was incredible in itself. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Face Posted March 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 I'm kind of curious to see how this works out for the Browns. They're getting devastated by the media & the fan base for just letting all 4 FA's walk but it seems like DePodesta is taking a true analytic/Moneyball type approach here. He's letting the FA's walk, getting the compensatory picks, and look like they plan on sucking hard for a year or two while getting a bunch of high picks & the comps, and then having a ton of money to spend 2-3 years from now. Or maybe they're just clueless. We'll see. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvgJoe Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, Face said: I'm kind of curious to see how this works out for the Browns. They're getting devastated by the media & the fan base for just letting all 4 FA's walk but it seems like DePodesta is taking a true analytic/Moneyball type approach here. He's letting the FA's walk, getting the compensatory picks, and look like they plan on sucking hard for a year or two while getting a bunch of high picks & the comps, and then having a ton of money to spend 2-3 years from now. Or maybe they're just clueless. We'll see. As a baseball fan, his approach is far more likely to work in baseball only due to the structure of a game, long seasons where data can be analyzed, and a larger pool of players. Football is not the same style. While I am curious like you to watch this, Depodesta and the Browns will fail for the reasons above. Football is not a thinking/strategy sport to the same degree of baseball. Yes football teams have game plans, but with how fast paced the games are it is harder to make a change than a 3 minute at bat for example Edited March 16, 2016 by AvgJoe Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 Depodesta might succeed not because of statistical analysis, but because he is a lot smarter than your average NFL front office person. Most of these guys aren't that bright. rns90, Face, and OILERMAN 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.