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Posts posted by nine

  1. 1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

    Two coaching staffs are the reason to think it


    Henry was a known liability in pass protection when Mularkey was here.  


    Last year, the coaching staff obviously preferred Lewis as the better receiving option.   The problem was that whatever advantages he offered in the passing game were offset by his overall ineffectiveness as a runner... which became a significant detriment to the offense as a whole.    And then when he became ineffective as a receiver down the stretch....it was just downright ugly. 


    After struggling for the first four weeks, Henry was consistently the better and more productive runner from week 5 on.  He had limited snaps in the passing game but was effective when given the opportunity.


    Lewis was a quality receiving option for most of the the year...but as a runner he was horribly ineffective aside from 2-3 solid games.   But despite this  inconsistency, the coaching staff made Lewis their #1 bell cow and kept feeding him even after his production fell off a cliff...to the point where it was just downright embarrassing.  


    Mularkey limited Henry’s reps due to known limitations...which is fine.


     Last year’s staff chose  to go in another direction entirely, long after Henry proved himself as the more consistent and productive player.  And that’s on them.

  2. In 2018,  the Titans D had 39 sacks, which ranked them #16 in the league.   Casey led the team with 7;   Jayon Brown had 6....Woodyard, Landry, and Ryan all had 4 - 4.5.


    But there's also plenty of room for improvement...and ample reason to believe it will happen.    The starting DEs (Orakpo/Morgan) produced only two sacks all season.  Rashaan Evans was an excellent pass rusher in college, but was rarely afforded an opportunity use those skills as a rookie. 


    There's a very good chance that the starting DEs (Wake/Landry) will produce 15-20+ sacks this year....and there's no question Evans will have a much bigger role in year 2.    Between Evans and Jayon, we could easily see 10-12 sacks from the ILB position as teams won't know which guy is coming.  


    Add in the contribution from depth guys like Correa, Walker, and Long....and the occasional DB blitz from Byard/Ryan/Butler...and this defense could pose some real problems for opposing offenses.    (And while nobody's banking on it,  there's also the possibility of Simmons contributing something down the stretch.)


    Last year's defense didn't have a great pass rush, but they had their moments as several different players contributed.   This year's roster should have a lot more sheer talent...and with the same scheme and Pees still calling the plays, I suspect they'll be much harder for opposing teams to deal with.

  3. After watching a considerable amount of film of the 2018 season,  I believe Henry's limitations in the passing game are greatly overstated.   


    In 2016 & 2017, Henry's struggles in pass protection were well-documented.   In 2018 he improved significantly and was very reliable in pass protection, although his  opportunities were limited.   I've reviewed quite a bit of all-22 footage from the 2018 regular season and found several plays where Henry diagnosed and picked up a blitz....but none where he gave up a sack or allowed a pressure.   (He did allow one in preseason...although even that one was debatable, as it was actually Kline's man;   Henry couldn't respond quickly enough after Kline whiffed on the guy.)


    As a receiver, Henry has shown the basic skills that would be required of any pass-catching RB:   he has reliable hands (83% catch rate in 2018) and he runs the routes that are typically associated with the position...screens, flares, check-downs, etc.  I won't pretend to know the finer points of the RB position or its role in the passing game...but has far as the basic fundamental requirements go, Henry's solid.


    The passing game obviously isn't Henry's strongest area, but there's certainly no reason to think he'd be a limiting factor.   


  4. It's safe to assume Humphries is better and more dependable out of the slot than anything we saw from Sharpe and Taylor last year.    From what I've seen of him on film, Hump excels at finding gaps in coverage and creating separation....and he can be relied on to catch the ball when it hits him in the hands.   These were all issues for last year's receiving corps.


    But the receiver can only do so much;   now it's up to Marcus to hold up his end of the bargain.

  5. 58 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

    His first couple of years he was used to run out the clock in the 4th quarter so that stat isn't surprising and more a product of already winning game vs the reason for winning a lot of those games. 


    It was half and half.   There were ten games where the Titans held a lead after three quarters and closed it out....and ten games where the Titans were losing or tied in the fourth quarter.

  6. Dan Orlovsky had an interesting comment yesterday when asked if the Titans should extend Mariota:


    No....because they still don’t know what they have with him.  He’s been there for four years...but  he’s been through so many different coaching staffs and offensive systems, he’s had absolutely no consistency around him, so he’s been inconsistent himself.  Anyone who’s already made up their mind about how good or bad Mariota is doesn’t know what they’re talking about...because nobody knows.  You can’t extend him until you know what you’re getting.”

  7. Keep in mind, there were three games last year where they ran the ball far more than they threw it.  In weeks 2 & 3 they ran it 34-35 times while attempting only 21 passes.  The Giants game was even crazier with a 2:1 run/pass ratio in a monsoon.  I doubt we’ll see anything like that this year.


    Henry will obviously get a ton of touches...but even when he’s not, just forcing defenses to account for him should help open up the passing game.  


    Whereas LB’s typically line up 4-7 yards off the LOS in most situations,  they’ll often cheat a yard or two closer in anticipation of  a run...which creates a bigger cushion behind them and puts them a step late dropping into coverage.


    The same goes for safeties.  If they’re thinking run and start coming downfield at the snap, they could easily find themselves  out of position and struggling to recover as a receiver runs past them.  


    In week 17, the Colts D was hyper-tuned in on Henry and did as good a job of containing him as one could ask.  (Although he still had 100+ yards from scrimmage and averaged 5+ yds/carry).   But their aggressive play left receivers running open all night long;  Gabbert simply couldn’t hit them. Had the Titans gotten even average QB play in that game, things might have turned out very differently.


    If Henry can pick up where he left off last year, Vrabel and Arthur would be fools not to run the offense through him.  It’ll make the QB’s job a whole lot  easier.

  8. 3 hours ago, Starkiller said:

     If they get a top QB in the draft they start him and let him learn on the fly. 


    Most people (and coaches) would agree with this.   I see pros and cons both ways.


    Teams who draft a QB in round one typically don't have an established starting-caliber QB on the roster;  starting the rookie is a no-brainer.  But in terms of producing quality QBs, the sit-and-learn approach is perfectly viable and (IMO) has a higher rate of success.


    Ultimately, teams should play the guy who gives them the best chance of winning.  If the rookie is the best option from day one....so be it.   If he needs a year or two to get acclimated to the NFL game...that's okay, too.

  9. Based on how this year plays out, I would imagine either Marcus or Tannehill is the starter in 2020.  I can’t see them signing either QB to an extension unless it’s a Bortles-esque deal that gives the team an out after a year or two.


    Given the amount of top QB talent in the 2020 draft,  I firmly believe QB has to be the team’s  #1 priority next year regardless of how the 2019 season plays out or the QB situation.   The chances of a rookie outplaying Marcus or Tannehill are quite slim indeed;  I say draft the best QB available, let him sit for a year and revisit it in 2021.

  10. I suppose it's all about expectations.    The #21 ranking is quite reasonable if you expect...


    • the Mariota who had a 67 passer rating in weeks 1-7....not the Mariota who had a 103 passer rating for weeks 8-15.
    • the Derrick Heny who averaged 3.0 yards/carry in weeks 1-4...not the DH who averaged 5.7 ypc over the next twelve games.
    • Little/no improvement from year 2 to year 3 for Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Taywan Taylor, and/or Tajae Sharpe.
    • Little/no improvement in O-line play despite the addition of Roger Saffold, Jack Conklin getting healthy, and cutting Josh Kline.

  11. NFL GMs and HCs are literally the world's foremost experts on NFL football.   They're extremely knowledgeable with countless years of football experience under their belts, and earn seven-figure salaries to build teams and win games.....yet we constantly see poor scouting and personnel assessments,  ill-advised gameplans, and terrible in-game decisions.   


    Media analysts and sports writers obviously aren't the foremost authority on NFL football;  they're simply paid to offer their opinions, right or wrong.  The funny part is that the decisions and opinions of NFL GMs and HCs aren't necessarily any better than the media talking heads....they just get paid a lot more.

  12. 3 hours ago, Number9 said:


    If you guys are interested, I will tell you the "Real Hot Chicken Story."


    Sounds like another one of those Penthouse Forum “I never would have believed it could happen to me” stories about a time where a guy meets some random sexy chicken in a bar and they end up ass-banging behind the dumpster.....



    I’m in.   Let’s hear it. 

  13. Only JRob and Vrabel know the truth.  We’ll find out what the deal is soon enough.


    If they see Marcus being as limited as many on this forum believe and Tannehill outplays him in camp....the leash could be very short indeed.  Both JRob and Vrabel firmly believe the team is positioned to be a contender this year;  they’re not going to let it get derailed by one player’s inconsistency.


    Or perhaps JR and MV are reasonably confident in Mariota’s ability and Tannehill is simply a high-priced insurance policy in case of injury.  Again....we’ll know soon enough.

  14. Clowney’s a pretty damn good player and a physical freak...but between injuries and his tendency for disappearing in games, he’s never come anywhere close to justifying his draft slot.


     I haven’t followed his career closely ...but from a casual observer POV, he’s a borderline impact player at best. 


    I certainly wouldn’t mind having the guy....but I wouldn’t give up a lot od draft capital or throw ridiculous money at him.

  15. 3 hours ago, Callidus said:

    So were the jags and that superduper philly team 10years ago and that all turned out great.


    “DREAM TEAM!!!!“


    The Browns definitely have a lot of talent on the roster....and I think Mayfield is the real deal.  There’s definitely potential to be a really good team. 


    There’s also a lot of pressure on the coaching staff to not screw it up.  

  16. 7 hours ago, BudAdams said:

    Can you show all of 2016?  It would be interesting to see the play before and after the hot streak as well given the production was similar to 2017/2018.


    Yeah, I plan on doing that as well, but it will be a few days due to travel and work obligations.


    We obviously know what the bad looks like;  I also wanted a view of the good as a baseline so we can (hopefully) see specifically what has changed from then to now and exactly where things have fallen off.

  17. For the sake of comparison....here are all of Mariota's red zone plays during his 8-week hot streak in 2016.


    (Hint:   These clips show a lot of throws into very tight windows or to receivers who aren't necessarily wide open;  there are also a lot of plays with receivers winning their battles and making difficult contested catches.   Both have been conspicuously absent over the past couple seasons.)


    2016 RZ - Part 1  (weeks 5-6)


    2016 RZ - part 2   (weeks 7-8)


    2016 RZ - part 3  (week 9)


    2016 RZ - part 4   (weeks 10-11)


    2016 RZ - part 5   (week 12)

  18. Here's the coaches' film showing all of Mariota's red zone plays (both passing and rushing) for the 2018 season.    


    In addition to showing all plays inside the 20-yard line, I also included plays inside the 30 yard line that were (IMO) relevant to the subsequent RZ possession.



    Red Zone attempts - Weeks 12-16


    Red Zone attempts - Weeks 9-11


    RZ attempts - Weeks 5-8


    RZ attempts - Weeks 1-4



    UPDATE - for the sake of comparison, I also put together similar clips showing Mariota's red zone play during his 8-game hot streak in 2016.    


    Links to 2016 Red Zone footage

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