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Everything posted by nine

  1. DOH....Thanks for the heads up. I spliced in the wrong clip; I'll have it fixed shortly. EDIT: It's fixed now.
  2. Just for clarification: when I say "2018 sacks", I'm referring to the NFL 2018 season...not the number of times he was sacked in the Ravens game.
  3. All-22 footage showing every sack Mariota took in 2018. All 42 of 'em. Rather than making one huge file, I split them into four separate 5-6 minute videos for easier consumption. Note that the videos start in week three. Marcus wasn't sacked in the season opener and was sidelined in week 2. Sacks: Weeks 3-6 ( clip updated) - @ Jags, vs Eagles, @ Bills, vs. Ravens Sacks: Weeks 7-10 - @ Chargers, @ Cowboys, vs Patriots Sacks: Weeks 11-12 - @ Colts, @ Texans Sacks: Weeks 13-16 - vs Jets, vs Jags, @ NYG, vs Redskins
  4. 520 does seem to be a bit preoccupied with reviving and recycling old predictions and other useless crap from 4-5 years ago. It's kinda like an aging headbanger who insists Whitesnake, Motley Crue, and the other bands he listened to in high school are still relevant today.
  5. For what it's worth...according to OverTheCap.com, Todd Gurley ($14.3M/yr), LeVeon Bell ($13.1M), and David Johnson ($13M) are the only running backs making eight figures; the next guy is Devonte Freeman at $8.25M. There's literally nobody in the $9-12M range. Weird, right? https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/ Extending Henry this year is probably unlikely....but I certainly wouldn't rule it out. Right now, both parties have a certain amount of leverage to negotiate...and similar risk, as well. Henry's camp can point to his hot stretch last year and a half-dozen games in 2016-2017 as proof of his ability. Other selling points are his durability and ball security, both of which have been excellent. But injury is an ever-present risk and a fact of life in the NFL; if Henry gets hurt or if his production declines next year, his value for 2020 drops significantly. JRob can point to the fact that Henry's production has been wildly inconsistent aside from a four-game hot stretch...and unlike Gurley/Bell/Johnson, Henry has been primarily a 2-down back with limited involvement in the passing game. The fact that both sides have similar risk/reward makes this a good time to negotiate an equitable deal that works for both sides. And if Henry's camp decides to play hard ball and demand top-three money, JRob always has the franchise tag (currently $11M) as his hole card for 2020.
  6. The problem with trading down is that it requires a partner who wants to trade up. This class has a lot of quality prospects...but IMO, the drop-off in talent from #19 to #32 isn’t bad. Rather than sacrificing a 3rd to jump up maybe 10-12 spots, I suspect teams will be content to keep their picks and let the draft come to them.
  7. It just depends on your opinion and faith in Henry’a ability. If you see him as a franchise-caliber RB and a cornerstone of the offense, then you pay him as such. If you think you can get comparable production by letting him walk and drafting his replacement, then you do it.
  8. I like JJ Arcega-Whiteside in round 2......the guy reminds me of Anquan Boldin. He's not the speed burner that people fantasize about, but he has good hands and understands how to use his body to gain leverage on defenders. I see him becoming a highly effective and dangerous red zone target.
  9. Au contraire....it's the gift that just keeps coming, all year round. She doesn't see it as just a gift....for her, it's an opportunity.
  10. Week 16 vs Redskins: 21 att, 84 yds, 1 TD 29 yds before contact (1.4 yds/att) 55 yds after contact (2.6 yds/att) Hit at/behind LOS: 9/21 (43%) Week 17 vs Colts - 16 att, 93 yds 37 yds before contact (2.3 yds/att.) 57 yds after contact (3.6 yds/att.) Hit at/behind LOS: 7/16 (44%)
  11. I'd absolutely be on board with trading the #19 pick for a proven franchise-caliber DT or pass rusher. The question is....is it worth sacrificing a mid-first round pick AND a significant chunk of cap space for a non-QB?
  12. I'd have to go back and re-examine every video to determine which plays were "hits" and which were "redirects". Honestly, I'm just too lazy. For what its worth...by "redirected", I'm referring to plays where Henry was forced to make a hard stop/cut due to an unblocked/un-engaged defender a step or two directly in front of him. They're not exactly broken tackles...but I'm still counting them as YAC since Henry earned those yards with little/no help from blocking.
  13. Week 15 @ Giants 33 att, 170 yds, 2 TD 34 yds before contact (1.0 yd/att) 135 yds after contact (5.2 yds/att) Hit at/behind LOS 17 times in 33 carries (52%)
  14. Week 14 vs Jags 17 att, 238 yds, 4 TD 34 yds before contact (2 yds/att) 204 yds after contact (12.0 yds/att) Hit at/behind LOS on 11 of 17 attempts (65%) I've always felt this game was an absolutely dominant O-line performance.....but after digging into it, I was very surprised to learn this wasn't necessarily the case, as Henry was hit or redirected at or behind the OL on almost 2/3 of his carries. Which just makes his performance that much more incredible.
  15. Week 11 @ Colts: 9 att, 46 yds 4 yards before contact (0.4 yds/att) 43 yds after contact (4.8 yds/att) Hit at/behind LOS on 7 of 9 carries (78%) Week 12 @ Texans: 8 att, 30 yds 3 yds before contact (0.4 yds/att) 27 yds after contact (3.4 yds/att) Hit at/behind LOS on 6 of 8 carries (75%) Week 13 vs. Jets 10 att, 40 yds, 1 TD 2 yds before contact (0.2 yds/att) 38 yds after contact (3.8 yds/att) Hit at/behind LOS on 5/10 attempts (50%)
  16. Week 10 vs Patriots: 11 att, 58 yds, 2 TD 42 yds before contact (3.8 yds/att) 16 yds after contact (1.5 yds/att) Hit at/behind line on 2 of 11 carries ( 18%) Both touchdowns were well-blocked plays where Henry went into the end zone untouched. An excellent game by the O-line.
  17. week 9 @ Cowboys 6 att, 27 yds, 1 TD 6 yards before contact (1.0 yd/att) 21 yds after contact (3.5 yds/att) Hit at/behind LOS on 4 of 6 carries (67%)
  18. For what it's worth.....since play-by-play analysis of Henry's yards before & after contact is slightly time-consuming, I'm going to assume weeks 6 & 7 aren't much different from weeks 1-5 and skip them entirely; I'll jump to the games after the bye week.
  19. For weeks 1-5: 0.3 yds before contact per att 3.1 yds after contact per att 90% of Henry's yards were gained after contact....crazy.
  20. Obviously. And the tape clearly shows Henry had his share of plays where he could have/should have been more decisive, more physical, or finished stronger. But it's hard to expect any RB to finish strong on plays where they barely get started before being hit.....which happened on exactly 59% of Henry's carries in weeks 1-5. (36 of 61 carries) In fairness to the O-line, not all of these plays were their fault. There were several instances of Henry running into a stacked front with a defender who was unblocked or unaccounted for at the point of attack. But there were also several plays where Henry had to put forth tremendous effort just to get back to the LOS, and lots of plays where OL failed to sustain their blocks and allowed defenders to disengage just as Henry reached the LOS. For much of the season, people acted as if Henry was playing poorly and consistently leaving yards on the field....even Henry himself. The game film does show some instances where this happened....but it also shows that most of the time, there was simply nothing there to start with.
  21. Week 4: 8 att, 24 yds. 4 total yds before contact (0.5 yds/att), 20 yds after contact (2.5 yds/att). Hit at/behind the LOS on 6 of 8 attempts (75%). Week 5: 11 att, 56 yds. 4 yds before contact (0.4 yds/att), 52 yds after contact (4.7 yds/att). Hit at/behind LOS on 6 of 11 attempts (55%)
  22. For what it's worth: it's been my theory that Henry's early struggles were due more to poor OL play than poor RB effort or execution. Not that Henry was great early in the season....but I felt his execution was at least "okay". Certainly better than the O-line, for sure. I decided to put my theory to the test by reviewing every run and noting where he was initially hit or forced to redirect to avoid a tackler (i.e. yards before contact) and how many yards he ultimately gained on the play. Week 1: 10 attempts, 26 yards. According to my review, on these ten attempts, Henry got a combined total of -2 yards before contact. (Yep...minus two yards). Henry gained 28 yards after contact (2.8 yards per play)....yet had only 26 yards total. He was hit at or behind the LOS on 5 out of 10 attempts (50%) Week 2: 18 att, 56 yds. With 18 total attempts, Henry got a combined 3 yards before contact (.2 yds/att....about seven inches.). 53 of his 56 yards came after contact. (3.0 yds/att). Hit at/behind the LOS on 10 of 18 attempts. (56%) Week 3: 18 att, 57 yds. 11 total yds before contact (.6 yds/attempt); 46 Yds after contact (2.6 yds/att). Hit at/behind the LOS on 9 of 18 attempts. (50%) I'll continue going down the list tomorrow...but it's interesting seeing the actual yards before /after contact and how often he was actually getting hit behind the LOS.
  23. If I was in JRob’s position, I would have been looking very closely at this year’s first-round QB prospects....and maybe he is, for all we know. But if he is, he’s done a spectacular job of keeping it under wraps.
  24. I copied this page to spreadsheet, then sorted the results by yards-to-go and yards gained...then just counted them. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HenrDe00/rushing-plays/2018/ I’m not necessarily a big believer in stats just for the sake of stats...but for the sake of discussion, I find stats and analytics do a better job of telling the story better than any other single source.
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