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Posts posted by tgo

  1. 18 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

    Maybe they think the debate will overshadow the interview. Either way, he should not be doing interviews. 


    Hunter is doing his own thing I think, trying to protect Joe (but probably doing more harm than good) - he and Biden are pretty distanced and don’t talk like he and Beau did. 


    He probably thinks its best to just address the issue and put it to bed, which maybe isn’t the right call. 


    Trump and Republicans are going to say what they’re going to say regardless and it wont move the needle much in the primary beyond any damage that may have already been done. 



  2. 2 minutes ago, Starkiller said:


    As I see it, anyone who won’t vote for a woman over Trump at this point is probably a pretty cemented Trump supporter anyway...



    Warren’s likability quotient is pretty high already. She has turned a lot of people her way who weren’t for her early on with her likability. And she may be an ivory tower intellectual but she has campaigned as anything but an elitist. It’s the elites who she is going after. 


    Yes, but plenty of people aren't seeing it like that even if she's slowly winning them over. 


    If she can make inroads into the black community, Biden would be toast. And this could actually happen if she wins Iowa/NH and even Nevada. Even if she were to take 1/3 of Biden's black support, it would be significant. 

  3. 4 hours ago, Starkiller said:

    In a perfect situation you would have a more moderate younger, charismatic candidate like Obama or Bill Clinton. We don’t have that. Biden is the name moderate but he's old and not a very good candidate. Warren is probably the most charismatic in the field but is too liberal for some (I’m past the woman candidate issue, though some aren’t).


    If Buttigieg were more experienced he might be an obvious choice. But you just can’t nominate the mayor of South Bend. I liked Booker as the young, charismatic guy but he didn’t catch on.


    In the end, I still think Warren's populist message is the best bet to beat a Trump. The normal playbook says a moderate stands the better chance. But against Trump, I think the normal playbook is out the window. People voted for Trump based on a populist message which he has failed to live up to. I think Warren is well suited to capitalize on that where against a more traditional republican she might not fair as well.


    This very well could end up being true, it's something I've spent a lot of time thinking about. I'm personally an anti-populist in many ways, but I think economic populism is where the mojo is electorally in the current time we're living in. And this thinking will become more prevalent I bet if Biden has many more stumbles or doesn't have some more good debates/moments in the coming months. 


    But you guys are underestimating gender bias I think. I personally do not give two shits, I happily voted for Hillary and was an ardent supporter, but many people do, especially older Democrats and left leaning independents. 


    A big question for me is this - does Warren become more likable as people get to know her more or less likable? A lot of people are turned off by her condescension and perceived elitism. We will find out I suppose. 

  4. 5 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

    Point being you made it sound as if Biden has a better chance of winning Ohio than Warren vs Trump. Statistically they are both within the margin of error.


    There have been other semi recent polls showing Warren losing to Trump and Biden beating Trump by 5+. 


    But yeah, both are technically statistically tied. I just have a very very hard time seeing Warren beating Trump in Ohio just politically and knowing that electorate and hearing Schultz talk extensively about Ohio.