The -20 to 20 scale is a measure of a players Approximate Value relative to the average Approximate Value of players selected in their draft slot. This chart plots the relationship between how well a team does one year against how well they did the previous year. If certain teams were notably better at drafting than others, there should be a distinct positive correlation between the plots, with most falling in either the upper right or lower left quadrant. Instead, it’s an unintelligible mess.
Anecdotal evidence exists of certain General Managers hitting on more picks than average. Panthers fans have seen that with Marty Hurney’s draft success in the first round. Chase Stuart points to two other examples in Bill Polian of the Colts and A.J. Smith of the Chargers in the mid-2000s. Both built up reputations as draft geniuses after stretches of magnificent drafting that left both of their teams stacked with talent. That changed drastically starting in 2007. Between 2007 and 2012, the pair made 79 draft selections. Three of those have made a Pro Bowl- Eric Weddle, Melvin Ingram, and Pat McAfee.
The draft is a crap shoot - no matter what you do