That take is totally incorrect. One, stop believing you understand why other people come to different conclusions than yours. You do this because you can’t see past your own scope of thinking and observation, suspicion and conclusion, then you conclude for everyone who disagrees that they arrived to the same diametrically stupid conclusion opposite yours because they didn’t go down the same rabbit hole, which you’re way down on this one.
I’ll just simplify it for you:
Carroll made one of the worst calls of the possible options from a risk and security standpoint, even in a microscope. You’re going with this cavalier “That shoulda worked” mentality. It’s basic. Ya basic.
Both run and pass have low odds of success for stoppage or turnover for a defense on 2nd and 1, especially considering when the field of play is 1 yard for offense to attain.
But get this simple fact: In it’s purest form, the odds of mistakes are higher for the offense in the passing game, while the odds of success are higher in the running game.
The Seahawks and Carroll thought they were likely to succeed either way they went, and they were, but no matter how small the perceived chance of turnover was, they ignored it for the larger odds of success.
Add to that the way they attacked through the air, which was by design. They tried to force Lockett(?) in by moving the line back instead of just forward with Lynch. They gave a smaller guy room to run at the interior as you’d expect the big guy to run, except the big guy would have had more time to secure the ball!
The Seahawks thought they were going to open the mouth of the defense and get in via air before the teeth clamped shut, so getting Lynch or Wilson outside in space would have been theoretically safer.
People gripe about the wildcat play, but consider that the Texans and Titans both disrupted the ball in the end zone in the same game.
That last play really just doubled down on Henry’s odds of success because it started with playing the odds of security first and foremost. Lol, and hell yeah it was cringeworthy! And gloriously awesome at the same time.
Yeah, be confident in your QB and passing game, but in any situation, smart confidence is better than confidence alone.
And fuck you for making me type this much.