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nine

Extend Marcus this year? Or wait and see?

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nine   

In light of the contract the Niners have given Garoppolo, it seems pretty reasonable to ask how/when the Titans organization should approach  Mariota's contract situation.

 

Under his current contract, Mariota will draw a base salary of $3.6M for 2018...and the club will obviously exercise the fifth-year option for the 2019 season, which will probably put him around $24M.   After the 2019 season, the team will either have to extend him or tag him for 2020;  based on the steady increase in QB salaries, either approach would likely result in a cap hit of $30M/year or higher.

 

Rather than exercising Marcus' fifth-year option, it seems to me they should seriously consider offering him a long-term extension (say 5-6 years) instead.

 

After a decidedly subpar season in 2017,  Marcus' stock is likely as low right now as it will ever be...which makes him more likely to accept a relatively reasonable contract.  As it stands today,  a salary of $20-22M would put him in the top 10-15 quarterbacks

 

Should Marcus bounce back in the new offense the way many are hoping/expecting, then his market value goes through the roof.  Waiting two more years to extend him or tag him could easily result in a cap hit of $30M/year or higher;  this represents an increase of probably $8-10M/year over his current value....money that could otherwise be available to solidify other positions if they were to get him locked down at a more reasonable rate this year.  

 

Of course, it all boils down to whether the organization's belief in Marcus and his ability to improve and develop into a top-flight QB.   Extending him now would cut $20M of usable cap space for 2018 and would obviously have a significant  impact on their approach to free agency this offseason....but it would also free up space in the future and prevent his contract from becoming constrictive 3-5 years from now.   And of course, they could structure it so that most of the guaranteed money hits in the first 2-3 years, thus giving the team the option of cutting ties should he come up short of expectations.

 

As a fan, I have complete faith in Marcus, and I'm convinced that his market value will never be lower than it is right now.    There's no question in my mind that he's going to be leading this team for at least the next 2-3 years.   IMO, the franchise should assume the risk and lock him down now, before his performance and market value explode.

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ctm   

I'd wait till I could get a look at him with a full off season and some games played under the new regime.  Maybe mid-season this fall.

 

Lewan will be next and then there is the question of how much financial commitment ownership is willing to make in one year.

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OILERMAN   
24 minutes ago, nine said:

As a fan, I have complete faith in Marcus, and I'm convinced that his market value will never be lower than it is right now.    There's no question in my mind that he's going to be leading this team for at least the next 2-3 years.   

You have complete faith but set the limit on years he'll be leading the team to 2-3 at least? Even if he's a bust and doesn't improve at all from 2017 he'll be the QB for the next 2 years in all likelyhood 

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We won’t, but we should. Ownership doesn’t have enough capital to put up the likely 130 million in guarantees it would take between Lewan and Mariota. 

 

At worst we are in an Alex Smith situation with MM, which means we should sign him. At best he becomes a top 5 QB over the next few years and Robinson looks like a genius for getting him under contract early.

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Tomachek   

No way.  Keep Mariota cap numbers low now while he's under a rookie contract.  Spend the money wisely to improve the team in other areas in hopes of reaching a SuperBowl before having to sign him to a mega deal.  Hopefully when that time comes Mariota is a stud that improves the team around him, at this point in his career he needs the support around him.

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nine   
56 minutes ago, japan said:

No agent in his right mind would negotiate in the position Mariota is in. 

 

There's certainly an argument to be made for Marcus waiting another year before agreeing to an extension....but there's also risk involved on his side, as well.

 

Let's say the Titans are prepared to offer him a 5-year deal with $60M in guarantees, and Marcus doesn't take it.   If he has another down season in '18 or sustains a significant injury during the season, could he expect a similar offer after the season?   Nope.   At that point, he's getting the $24M fifth-year option and his future depends on what he does in 2019.   And instead of getting the $60M that he was guaranteed, he's getting about $27M over the next two years....less than half of what he could have had by signing an extension this year.

 

It's also worth noting that Marcus is 24 years old right now.   If he were to get a five-year extension this year, then he'd be 28-29 when they start talking a second long-term extension.  The stigma of being 30 is obviously less of a consideration for quarterbacks than it is for many other positions...but it's a consideration nonetheless.    

 

IMO, Titans need to avoid the type situation the Jags are in right now:   Bortles is in the fifth and final year of his rookie contract...the Jags have a big decision coming next year and they're still trying to figure out what they have.     Extending Marcus with a reasonable contract now would cost the Titans more in the short term, but it would eliminate the need for an all-or-nothing commitment one way or the other in 2020.   

 

And if Marcus falls short of the lofty expectations two years from now and ends up being a middle-of-the-road Joe Flacco/Andy Dalton type QB....it would allow the Titans to start examining other options without their QB's salary being a huge albatross.

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This whole conversation is pointless, there is no way in hell anyone in Mariota's camp wants to negotiate now. In all likelihood they won't even want to negotiate next year.... Nor will the Titans.

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Soxcat   

That is non-sense.  If Mariota was offered $120 mil for 6 years he would be an idiot not to take it.

Look at the kid's career so far.  Hasn't been healthy for 16 games.  Coming off a bad year.

You really think Mariota's camp isn't thinking there is a chance he might not be a $30 mil a year QB?   

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Soxcat   
1 hour ago, Tomachek said:

No way.  Keep Mariota cap numbers low now while he's under a rookie contract.  Spend the money wisely to improve the team in other areas in hopes of reaching a SuperBowl before having to sign him to a mega deal.  Hopefully when that time comes Mariota is a stud that improves the team around him, at this point in his career he needs the support around him.

Really if they want to extend someone and use money they have this year to front load a contract they should extend Lewan.  In reality his future is more certain than Mariota's.  If for some reason Mariota flops the Titans will want to move on.  Not saying that will happen but we already know Lewan is going to be our LT for a long time. 

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Of course you extend Lewan first. Barring a major injury to Mariota he is going to be the QB throughout Vrabel’s tenure. There is enough talent on the roster that we will not be picking in the top 10 anytime soon. If we go the 5th year option route and he blows up then we are looking at 30+ million a year to re-sign him. If we franchise him then we are looking at around 60 million over a 2 year period without having him under contract. If he was willing to take 60 million guaranteed then I’d pull the trigger in a heartbeat, because you’re going to be paying him that much for year 5 and 6 anyways. 

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