OILERMAN Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 The Titans were actually blowing a lot of teams out last year into the 2nd half that could sway the formations and sets to a certain degree. The Jags, Fins, Browns, GB and Bears game the Titans got big leads and tried to run the ball out because of the terrible defense. I still think the %s represent what Mularkey wanted to do but it's enough games and enough blowouts to alter the %s. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, Superhorn said: Yes, that's true. Titans ran 197 plays out of 1 WR sets. Next closest was 156 and 155, KC and NE, respectively. It is 30% higher, but I'd also point out that coloring it that way is, in my opinion, adding a little sensationalism. I mean this in the sense that 30% higher sounds much more comparatively, but, in the aggregate, we're only talking about 40 plays per year, which is 2.5 plays per game. After all, our 1 WR sets didn't even represent 20% of our total plays. One could take this to an extreme - Josh McDaniels runs 1100% more zero WR plays than Mike Mularkey does (34 vs. 3 plays last year). Moreover, his 34 plays with no WRs is almost 3 times higher than the second closest team (Seattle with 12). All this said, given the departure of Fasano, I think it's a pretty safe bet that we'll see less 13 personnel this year. I wouldn't worry about it much. Its not remotely sensationalistic. the sample size is large enough... and in reality we are comparing to the mean - not the next closest. We pretty much doubled the average team. Literally every stat in the NFL can be broken down and justified/simplified with your argument. "well its JUST 3 more run plays per game", "well its JUST 20 more yards per game", "well its just 1 more first down per game", "well its JUST 1 more point per game". When you add these things up over the course of a season - in the NFL that means significant points and often 3-4 wins can correlate with these seemingly minuscule stat-lines. Its a game of inches, don't gloss over the inches. BB does it and many analytics teams are starting to realize it. 4 more passes per game may provide 15 more yards than running the ball / 7% higher chance of TD / 25% better chance of first down / and 1% higher chance of turnover........ but 8 more passes per game shoots that turnover margin WAY up. (completely made up numbers for illustration purposes) Of course you can't play on stats alone, there's feel and opponent weakness, etc... but you CAN look back and realize you are becoming predictable or you have tendencies that can be game-planned against. At those times you should find ways to adjust better. In those 50/50 situations, pass a little more often or line up in a wider set. After all... it is JUST 2-3 plays a game I do expect the pass % and 3WR sets % to go up this year. Also, Mcdaniels DOES like to run those sets significantly more. If you look back over the course of his career in NE i think you'd find that. And he's extremely consistent in the redzone (top 5-10 every year since 2013) But I dont know what that has to do with this other than trying to undermine legitimate stats by creating the appearance of faulty or exaggerated percentage stats. Edited June 21, 2017 by titanruss Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) What are the stats and success rates on 1 or 0 WR sets? Success rates vs the rest of the league... success rates when outside the redzone in those sets vs other sets. Thats the real argument. We wanted more 3 WR sets but yeah, 2 WR sets are fine when you have Delanie and Demarco in the game. The 2016 titans weren't giving up much if anything pass O related with those two in the game. Knowing success rates between the 20s of each alignment vs league averages (and by each quarter of the season) would go a long way for better understanding if we were under/over utilizing certain players and sets. I dont know if those stats exist but it would be nice to see if anyone has links. Edited June 21, 2017 by titanruss Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiscotitansfan Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 @titanruss I have absolutely no stats to back anything up but I wouldn't be surprised if the most predictable games we had (Denver, Jags#1 and KC would be my guess), we won..... You have even admitted that us trying to be "exotic" and unpredictable early in the season was Mariota's downfall and lost us specifically Minn alone and possibly others. We evolved and got better, what are you still whining about? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, wiscotitansfan said: @titanruss I have absolutely no stats to back anything up but I wouldn't be surprised if the most predictable games we had (Denver, Jags#1 and KC would be my guess), we won..... You have even admitted that us trying to be "exotic" and unpredictable early in the season was Mariota's downfall and lost us specifically Minn alone and possibly others. We evolved and got better, what are you still whining about? i admitted that the "cute" plays were unnecessary and hurt the team. thats all. I also still say the route concepts were shitty early on as well as the over-protection. All that changed a bit. We still over-protected a little, and we needed to pass 3-4 more times a game and make the RB carries closer to 60/40. Those are my criticisms. That and lack of preparedness vs division opponents. I think by default because of personnel we will have to go more 3 wide. And if henry is looking as good as he seems to be and murray is still hurting - it forces them to do a better split. He'd be stupid not to use it properly. I hope he does. I have my doubts. But if he does then I'll cut him slack. But if it takes him 4 games to adjust when the scheme appears off from play 1 of the preseason... then he deserves to be called out for being retarded (literally.. as in slow) EagleEye 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 Regarding an offensive shift: The only mid-year Mariota game splits that I have saved off in one form or another is after 3 games. I'd prefer 4 games, but don't have it. That said, after 3 games Mariota had 68% of his pass attempt while trailing and 73% of his pass attempts from shot gun. In the remaining games, he had 54% of pass attempts while trailing and 82% of pass attempts from shotgun. The spread between trailing and shotgun in the first three games was 5%. The spread in the remaining games was 28%. Trailing theoretically correlates with shotgun passes, so for Mariota to pass 9% more often from shotgun despite trailing 14% less often is actually a pretty meaningful shift towards shotgun after the first three games. titanruss 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 That said, Mariota's passer rating is fairly worse while trailing (compared to tied + leading) and somewhat better in shotgun (compared to under center) so the whole correlation is imperfect at best, which is why you watch the games. wiscotitansfan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 22, 2017 Report Share Posted June 22, 2017 Evan Silva went into detail on jonboy's very question on his FF podcast today, I'll post the link later. He talked about Matt Ryan's progress under Mularkey and the roster make up. He went so far as to say they would be more of a 3 WR offense vs two TEs and said they'd throw the ball more. He loved what they've done titanruss, and Jonboy 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonboy Posted June 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: Evan Silva went into detail on jonboy's very question on his FF podcast today, I'll post the link later. He talked about Matt Ryan's progress under Mularkey and the roster make up. He went so far as to say they would be more of a 3 WR offense vs two TEs and said they'd throw the ball more. He loved what they've done Interesting. I'll have to check it out. OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted June 22, 2017 Report Share Posted June 22, 2017 Saw some stuff on Twitter the other day where Silva was hoping Titans. Not sure if it's the same thing, but he's definitely a fan of acquisitions. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 22, 2017 Report Share Posted June 22, 2017 https://www.podcastone.com/downloadsecurity?url=aHR0cDovL3BvZG9uZS5ub3hzb2x1dGlvbnMuY29tL2xhdW5jaHBvZC9mYW50YXN5ZmVhc3QvbXAzL2ZmMDYyMTE3Lm1wMyoqfDE0OTgxNjc0MDM2MzgqKnw=.mp3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9 Nines Posted June 23, 2017 Report Share Posted June 23, 2017 It has nothing to do with Mariota or the WRs, this is why the Titans have a chance of being very good on offense: https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-this-season/ The 2016 regular season has drawn to a close, and with it, another season with incredible highs and lows from the big guys in the trenches have been recorded in the Pro Football Focus database. We have seen a season in which some offensive lines have been the bedrock of their offense—the foundation on top of which everything else is built—and others have been the sand upon which their figurative houses have been built. We’re going to take a run through the league and rank every offensive line in the NFL this season, from best to worst, based largely on PFF’s grades, but also factoring in external factors, such as the quarterbacks those lines were blocking for, and the kind of scheme they were blocking within. Without further delay, here’s the ranking of all 32 NFL offensive lines in the 2016 regular season: 1. Tennessee Titans (Preseason rank: 25) Top overall grade: RT Jack Conklin, 88.9 (No. 5 among OTs) Top pass-blocking grade: RT Jack Conklin, 88.5 (No. 7) Top run-blocking grade: LT Taylor Lewan, 88.4 (No. 2) It seems heretical to suggest that the Dallas Cowboys did not field the best offensive line in the game in 2016, but Tennessee’s unit really was without a weakness all season. All five starters earned impressive grades in both run blocking and pass protection, paving the way to 2,180 rushing yards as a team, 1,777 of which came from their first two running backs, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. No member of the offensive line surrendered more than three sacks on the season, and while LT Taylor Lewan fell off a little as the year wore on, conceding more penalties than you would like, on the other side, rookie RT Jack Conklin earned PFF All-Pro honors. This unit may not be able to match the Dallas line in terms of its very peak performers, but there was no weak link along this chain all season long, and that’s why the Tennessee Titans finish the season as our No. 1 ranked line. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatDanish Posted June 23, 2017 Report Share Posted June 23, 2017 Quote 1. Tennessee Titans (Preseason rank: 25) Yes, it was a weakness the year before. We added a first round draft pick. We also added a key free agent. Let go of some old dead weight. Wait, am I talking about the 2016 OL, or the 2017 CBs? pat 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotstepper Posted June 23, 2017 Report Share Posted June 23, 2017 Love this comment I saw after the Decker signing. Kudos to our GM. A man with a plan. #InJRobWeTrust EagleEye, and titanskick8851 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiscotitansfan Posted June 23, 2017 Report Share Posted June 23, 2017 4 hours ago, GreatDanish said: Wait, am I talking about the 2016 OL, or the 2017 CBs? Nah, you're talking about the WRs pat 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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