Narrowing down the focus

[NashvilleNinja]

I just wanted to parse out my thoughts to try and narrow down who I thought the Titans might decide to take in the 1st round of the draft. There are pressing needs on both sides of the ball and some would argue that defense has been ignored early for far too long.

DEFENSE

They just signed both Logan Ryan and Johnathan Cyprien. They still have a need at corner, but they have also stated how deep they think the draft is at the position. That may not matter if they zero in on a guy they really like, but I doubt they'll take the guy at 5 because there are better players likely to be available there. Judging from free agency it seems like they're trying again to put themselves in the best position to take BPA.

I also don't think they take a linebacker high, regardless of what Hightower does. Foster is always a slight possibility, but there may be other players of more importance to them. If Hightower were to sign with us they likely won't even consider linebacker at all. And they won't go dline after having just signed Sly Williams and drafting Dodd and Johnson last year. They probably feel like they have enough bodies there.

The most likely position on defense that looks to get drafted first is safety. It's been said multiple times that DLB likes using 3 safeties. At least one, if not both of the best two safeties in this draft, will probably be there at 5. I've been on the Adams bandwagon for a long time, but with the Cyprien signing Hooker and his range in coverage skills may be more desirable. We've talked about using Cyprien as a hybrid safety/linebacker close to the los, with Byard backing him up. Hooker would be perfect as the high safety over top.

If I had to lay money down I would bet Hooker is the pick if they go defense. If Hooker is gone then I'd expect Adams to be the pick where they'd just use Byard as the high safety.

OFFENSE

It's either going to be WR or TE, imo. WR is the most obvious need, but with Fasano gone they need someone else opposite of Walker because while Supernaw is a quality depth re-signing, he's still just depth. Jace Amaro is an unknown wild card, but he wasn't known as a blocker so I can't see them relying on him. He may not even be on the roster by the end of camp.

The depth at TE is deep in this draft. But if you think the Titans are concerned with having an eventual replacement for Walker while in the meantime having a capable #2 tight end to team up with Walker then you probably won't have a better option than OJ Howard. He looks to be the most complete and pro-ready tight end in the draft. TE may be deep, but I don't see any other tight end with Howard's attributes and polish in another single tight end. After him it's like a piecemeal collection of his attributes in various guys. Considering how important tight end is to Mularkey's offense, considering the immediate need, and considering the impending need once Walker is done then Howard is a strong consideration, even at 5.

On the outside, we are thin at WR. It's one of the reasons we went after Brandin Cooks. It's also kind of obvious what kind of receiver they were looking for. They had the opportunity to go after Alshon, Pryor, and others in FA; guys who have been described as the "prototypical X receiver". But they were apparently uninterested. Part of that could be the question marks with those particular guys, but at least they wouldn't have had to give up draft capital to get them. Still, they went after Cooks, who is a decidedly different style of player. 

Mike Williams and Corey Davis have largely occupied the debate over who they might draft if they went after a receiver, but the guy in the draft that represents what seem to want most in a receiver is John Ross. They know we lack speed on offense so while Corey Davis might be a good fit or even a better player than Ross, Ross may fit what they want/need more for the offense. Same principle of Hooker over Adams.

The question is, if they had to choose between the two would they go with Howard or Ross? I have little doubt they would go with Howard.

CONCLUSION

So who will they take? It's a hard choice to make. If they take Hooker at 5 they won't get Howard at 18. If they take Howard at 5 they won't get Hooker at 18. It's possible they would be OK with the depth at tight end and just go with Hooker and try to pick up a guy like Hodges, Leggett, or Butt later, but Howard is a very difficult guy to replicate. And he could solidify the tight end position for at least a decade. What Gronk does for Brady Howard could do for Mariota. And Robinson was in on drafting that guy.

I think the Titans will go either Hooker + Ross or Howard + Ross. If not Ross, then maybe they go ahead and get their corner in a guy like Sidney Jones, but I doubt it. The idea of Howard & Ross won't go over well with some, but there's no denying the need at those spots and the team was willing to make moves to address them before the draft and didn't. At least not to the extent that they would have liked to.

[OILERMAN]

I think Thomas and Allen are in the discussion at 5.

If they trade down from 5 then Howard seems more realistic.

At 18 I actually think McCaffery is more likely than one of the true WRs.

[NashvilleNinja]

2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

I think Thomas and Allen are in the discussion at 5.

If they trade down from 5 then Howard seems more realistic.

At 18 I actually think McCaffery is more likely than one of the true WRs.

I'm just thinking they may love Howard enough to draft him at 5 if they can't trade back from 5. I may be overestimating Howard. I know it would probably set a precedent drafting him that high. Vernon Davis was taken 6th, but I don't know if any tight end has ever been taken higher. I don't think that should matter though, unless they think they can trade back and still get him a little later.

I'm not saying Thomas and Allen wouldn't be considered, but if they go defense with that first pick you don't think they would rather go after Adams or Hooker instead?

[thor]

If Ross is at 17 I believe the Redskins will be all over him...

If Howard is not selected at 5 I also believe he is taken in early first and will never reach 18...

I'm guessing the Titans go after Corey Davis and McCaffery (outside shot at S and quite possibly a CB---but I hope not)...planning to use third round picks on D...and because JRob is so fickle who really knows what the heck he has planned?

[OILERMAN]

7 hours ago, NashvilleNinja said:

I'm just thinking they may love Howard enough to draft him at 5 if they can't trade back from 5. I may be overestimating Howard.

 

Howard is a perfect fit and a huge need but you do not take a TE at 5 when you have the needs the Titans have and the potential impact players are available.

Allen, Thomas, Adams and Hooker are at more important positions and rated higher. And I love Howard

[THE_TITAN]

Hooker will be out for 4-6 months. Adams is way higher in my estimation.

[KnoxTitan]

I don't get the infatuation with Howard.

He's good, but I don't see anything in Howard that doesn't come around every draft year.

And, he's not known for being a monster blocker (though he improved this year) - so those 2 TE sets where you get Walker and the blocking TE (Fasano) - that ain't happening with Howard and Walker.

I don't even see TE as a huge need. Walker is his pro-bowl self and is signed for a couple of years and shows no signs slowing down. We need a blocking guy who can catch a little. That's not Howard's game. You can find that in free agency or later in the draft.

Meanwhile, our secondary is only marginally upgraded, we still don't have a linebacker that can cover a TE, and only 1 WR on the entire team that would even be considered league average.

 

Ross is a walking injury time bomb. You take Howard and Ross and the most probable outcome is that you have a decent backup TE and a oft-injured WR with those 2 picks.

[Huston]

6 hours ago, THE_TITAN said:

Hooker will be out for 4-6 months. Adams is way higher in my estimation.

He was before the injury for me.

[Yoshimitsu]

For whatever reason, at the five spot the Titans find themselves with Adams, Allen, and Thomas still on the board.  It's a good situation to have, but one that matters that much more considering the talent involved.  Honestly, I see them picking a defensive lineman over safety simply because you can never have too many d-linemen.  

 

Our second pick will be for the offense, but fully expect us to be out of the market for Howard because of where that second pick is.  I'm thinking it will be one of the wideouts here, or the dark horse of a linebacker pick. 

[NashvilleNinja]

On 3/16/2017 at 10:03 PM, Yoshimitsu said:

For whatever reason, at the five spot the Titans find themselves with Adams, Allen, and Thomas still on the board.  It's a good situation to have, but one that matters that much more considering the talent involved.  Honestly, I see them picking a defensive lineman over safety simply because you can never have too many d-linemen.  

 

Our second pick will be for the offense, but fully expect us to be out of the market for Howard because of where that second pick is.  I'm thinking it will be one of the wideouts here, or the dark horse of a linebacker pick. 

I disagree. You can always have too many of one thing to the detriment of other things. If that weren't true no one would ever get fat from eating nothing but pizza, cake, and candy.

[Bongo59]

If the top 4 breaks as I see it........I think we have two teams looking at 5th pick for two different reasons.  One is the NO Saints.  They'll want Barnett.  The other is Cleveland trying to jump NYJ.......the key is does JRob value somebody over the ransom?  And the key is I think the ransom maybe higher than we all expect.  I have a sense that 5th pick is gonna be worth something because I see two DL, a S and RB gone in the top 4.  This decision maybe harder to make than we all anticipate.