Jump to content

Using analytics to find our next DB


AussieTitanFan08

Recommended Posts

that PK article outlining how JRob scouted Logan Ryan is an interesting snapshot of how his use of analytics could be a guide to possible draft targets.

knowing that JRob looks for DB's with good ball skills and the ability to constantly contest catches I used the FBS CFB database to seek out the top DB's in terms of passes broken up (PBU) and INT's.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/38

what did stand out a lot of the top CB names didn't appear on the list, I put this down to opposition offenses throwing away from them.

some names that popped up that might be worth keeping an eye on.

Tedric Thompson who led the FBS in combined PBU/INT with 23, 16 PBU and 7 INT could be available 3rd round

Tre'Davious White 14 PBU and 2 INT considered a late 1st to 2nd rounder

Adoree' Jackson  11 PBU and 5 INT considered a 2nd to 3rd rounder

Jourdan Lewis 11 PBU and 2 INT considered a 2nd rounder

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Yoshimitsu said:

Good insight here, although I'd like to see this kind of stuff ran on known NFL bums like Valentino Blake.  

Throw analytics out the window with him, his Special Teams prowess is off the charts. It's crazy we are not fielding trade offers

But yeah, I wonder how much analytical work these number guys do on players currently in the NFL compared to mostly just prospects

Link to post
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Soxcat said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000777165/article/what-we-learned-from-shrine-game-moreau-could-be-1strounder

This draft is so strong at CB there will be first round talent going into the 2nd round.  You would think at #18 we could have multiple prospect that fit our press style.  The Moreau kid has to be a huge upgrade to a guy like Cox who looked stiff and slow. 

I'm starting to like the idea of trading down, only if we can stay within the top 10 area and aquire a high 2nd.

It'd be a dream that likely won't happen but if we could trade with the Bills, land Foster at 10 somehow, OJ Howard at 18 and a CB in the 2nd. Oh man, I don't care what we would have done for the rest of the offseason.

Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/9581177/new-jacksonville-jaguars-coach-gus-bradley-relies-analytics-espn-magazine

"The page titled "Blaine QB Rating Stats" revealed that when adjusted for drops, throwaways and spikes, Gabbert's passer rating in 2012 was a respectable 82.8. The next page, "Blaine Time in the Pocket," detailed the Jags' woeful pass protection: The line gave Gabbert an average of just 2.56 seconds to throw the ball. When he had more than 2.6 seconds to throw, his QB rating jumped to 84.5. The final page, "Blaine Under Pressure," showed that when facing a six-man rush, Gabbert ranked first among QBs in completion percentage.

Bradley was convinced that Gabbert deserved another shot. Six weeks later the Jags used the second pick in the draft to upgrade his protection, selecting Texas A&M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel."

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

There is no magic bullet. Atlanta is huge on analytics (maybe the biggest user currently), while Pittsburgh ignores them completely. The Jags used analytics to rationalize multiple terrible personnel decisions. 

Some folks are winners, and some are losers. It seems like we got a winner in JRob and I think he'll find the right guys either way. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

in today's Titans in Two Mike Keith once again mentions JRob's love of analytics, seems to be a theme this offseason, can't remember it being that much of a topic when he first took over.

sounds like the late round slot receivers are going to be an area of focus at the senior bowl.

Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, cenj said:

http://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/9581177/new-jacksonville-jaguars-coach-gus-bradley-relies-analytics-espn-magazine

"The page titled "Blaine QB Rating Stats" revealed that when adjusted for drops, throwaways and spikes, Gabbert's passer rating in 2012 was a respectable 82.8. The next page, "Blaine Time in the Pocket," detailed the Jags' woeful pass protection: The line gave Gabbert an average of just 2.56 seconds to throw the ball. When he had more than 2.6 seconds to throw, his QB rating jumped to 84.5. The final page, "Blaine Under Pressure," showed that when facing a six-man rush, Gabbert ranked first among QBs in completion percentage.

Bradley was convinced that Gabbert deserved another shot. Six weeks later the Jags used the second pick in the draft to upgrade his protection, selecting Texas A&M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel."

 

the problem is that the ultimate decision makers do not understand analytics enough to make decisions. they read what they want to read. 

they dont understand that EVERY QB in the leagues rating jumps significantly when those stats improve... and they dont understand how their QB is just good at finding the dumpoff on blitzes and nothing else. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

analytics are the future. everything can be broken down to nearly predictable outcomes given enough data.... or at least statistically significant outcomes. 

the only problem with them now is what constitutes good data and basically we need more of it. 

some think they have a little significant data already. they probably do. but it still doent mean they are going to guess right every time. everything still has a % chance of working or not. you just have to go with what gives the better chance more than what doesnt. 

 

people already do it with face to face interviews. they guess based on feel and appearance and percieved attitude. you are making small statistical decisions every day. analytics just attempts to quantify that and give you numbers to look at. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...