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CTF, have you renounced the Maple Leaf?


Mercalius

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your thoughts on the Kessel trade?  I don't know a ton of Leaf fans personally but the online reaction is overwhelmingly furious.  

It's been common knowledge they've needed a rebuild for awhile, but I can't say I agree with their offseason moves even knowing they need to get younger and build through the draft.  

Superbman (a huge Toronto fan on Youtube) seemed like he was ready to turn in his fan card after the trade broke.  I'm sure he'll calm down in time, but I was curious about your feelings towards their last week of activity.  

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Phil Kessel was probably the most natural goal scorer I have ever seen play of the leafs and maybe even it's most talented player skill wise in my lifetime. He was a top 10 point producer in the league but in terms of entertainment he was higher than that. I mean Corey POerry might put up equivalent/better numbers but he;s like watching paint dry compared to having the joy of watching Phil Kessel play hockey. 

As the team's marquee player, some of the criticism he has taken for the Leafs various tanks have been bizarre and unfounded. An old buddy and I have always laughed at some of these expressions various sports pundits come up with. Last week a talking head called Phil Kessel's goals, "empty calorie goals". Like WTF? In the one playoff series we have had since he was here Phil was the most dominant guy on the ice against Boston. I guess the goals he scored in that series were "empty calorie goals" because we lost?

 

This being said Phil Kessel has a demeanour that turns media on him. He eats donuts and hot dogs and looks like it. The fact that he finished in the top 3 in Leafs conditioning tests is never reported. He is uncomfortable around media and doesn't like talking. 

 

In the end, the Leafs have decided to do what they should have done awhile ago...tear everything down and begin anew with as many draft picsk and prospects as possible. I don't have an issue with the trade. It had to be done. My anger is targeted towards the idiots in management who could not build around him. OH what could have been! There is no room for Kessel playing for a team with a 5 year plan and a bunch of kids. The leafs want another top 5 pick or 2 in the next few drafts. 

 

Kessel now plays with Malkin and Crosby. HO-LEE-SHIT. 

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Yeah...I don't think it's crazy to predict a 50 goal season from Phil with Crosby/Malkin feeding him.  Still though, Pittsburgh is so cap-wrecked and devoid of depth that I don't know if even that unholy Trio will get them another Cup.  Will make for damn entertaining games though.


I really thought this may be the year the Preds would push for a young 1C.  I thought with Edmonton getting McDavid we could move a few things around (without losing Shea or Jones) and poach Draisaitl while his value was relatively low.  As the days pass, it's looking like Poile isn't too worried about Rib's age and/or Fishers propensity for getting injured lately.  We have a decent prospect in Kamenev (a Russian) who's expected to move to NA this year and play for the Ads, if not directly challenging for a main roster spot, but outside of that - our C pipeline is pretty devoid of talent.  Lots of bodies, but not too much substance.  Kamenev could be and hopefully will be an answer, but I don't know if a 1C is a realistic ceiling.  The kid we got in the 2nd this year, Tremin, could be in the mix in another season or two, but I'd be pretty amazed if he's anything more than a third-liner at best.  Jarnkrok's not been a bust by any means, but I think expectations were overblown on what he was capable of when he had that hot streak when he first joined the club.  

Forward-wise, the Preds are in a pretty ridiculous spot.  Too many bottom 6ers honestly, but there's some legit potential in Fiala, Arviddson, and opinions are mixed on Jimmy Vesey from Harvard (many think he'll go UFA after next season at Harvard).  He actually gave Eichel a run for his money last season as the best NCAA player in the nation, so there's some definite skill there, but then again he was several years older.  I think he'll stick around and sign after next season, but a lot of folks think he'll refuse to sign and play for his hometown Bruins.  

Defense-wise...the pipeline is pretty damn empty.  Could be something to worry about, but with our players on roster all locked up and generally pretty young, I don't think anyone's too worried.  An injury or two could make things ugly though.  

With goalies, we're bringing in Saaos this year to fight for the starting job in Milwaukee.  From all accounts, he's the real deal (though small).  Everyone thinks he'll be the heir to Pekka in another few seasons, but then again the same expectations were on Hellberg and that didn't turn out so well.  Personally though, I think Saros makes a name for himself over the next season or two, and hopefully there isn't a huge dropoff when Pekks finally rides off in the sunset.

Overall, I like where the team is at.  I'd LOVE to have a blue-chip center prospect fighting for third line time this season or developing (probably more ideally) as the man in the AHL.  Ribs could fall off any year now and certainly won't be around after another two seasons, and Fisher shocked many by not retiring this year.  In two years, there could be a huge vacuum where we're forced to make a trade that ends up hurting.  Hopefully Kamenev/Tremin alleviate some of that, but I can't lie that I'd be tempted if a huge offer came up for Jones or Weber in the next year or so.  

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The other thing you can learn form the Lerfs saga is getting your elite goal scoring winger prior to your 1A centre is cart before the horse. 

 

You don;t build a team around an elite goal scoring winger but you do build a team around a 1A centerman. Kessel was Patrick Kane without Jonathon Toews. Tyler Bozak was his centre for cripes sakes. Corey Perry has Ryan Getzlaf. Even Ovechkin has Backstrom who is on a whole other level than a guy like Bozak.  And I know that those guys don't; always play together but they do a lot and always on power plays. 

 

I think that really puts Phil's production in a whole other light. He has out pointed Patrick Kane over the last few years and look who Kane plays with. I think you could really see on Team USA Kessel was the most dangerous guy out there. 

 

Re Pittsburgh depth: It's very possible they wlll put Kessel, Crosby and Malkin on different lines. This means the Penguins will now have 3 very dangerous lines. Because you can pair all those guys up with slugs and they're going to produce. I think you'll mostly see those guys play together on the power play. Not sure about team defense though!

 

Merc - what about Forsberg as the future 1A centre? I know that going back to his draft year there were some that said he projected better as a winger? Where/how did he finish off last year with the Preds?

 

As I said awhile ago, I think the perfect trade partner for the Preds is Edmonton. With McDavid aboard they are willing to move prime young talent up front for defense. And they are young enough where the cap hit isn't bad. You referenced the lack of depth on D but from this seat having Weber, Jones, Franson et al is overkill and the Preds would be better off dealing for some firepower up front. It might be time to trade Weber let Jones develop into your 1A with the other kids and maybe a Jordan Eberle or Nail Yakupov or Ryan Nugent Hopkins in the fold. 

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The other thing you can learn form the Lerfs saga is getting your elite goal scoring winger prior to your 1A centre is cart before the horse. 

 

You don;t build a team around an elite goal scoring winger but you do build a team around a 1A centerman. Kessel was Patrick Kane without Jonathon Toews. Tyler Bozak was his centre for cripes sakes. Corey Perry has Ryan Getzlaf. Even Ovechkin has Backstrom who is on a whole other level than a guy like Bozak.  And I know that those guys don't; always play together but they do a lot and always on power plays. 

 

I think that really puts Phil's production in a whole other light. He has out pointed Patrick Kane over the last few years and look who Kane plays with. I think you could really see on Team USA Kessel was the most dangerous guy out there. 

 

Re Pittsburgh depth: It's very possible they wlll put Kessel, Crosby and Malkin on different lines. This means the Penguins will now have 3 very dangerous lines. Because you can pair all those guys up with slugs and they're going to produce. I think you'll mostly see those guys play together on the power play. Not sure about team defense though!

 

Merc - what about Forsberg as the future 1A centre? I know that going back to his draft year there were some that said he projected better as a winger? Where/how did he finish off last year with the Preds?

 

As I said awhile ago, I think the perfect trade partner for the Preds is Edmonton. With McDavid aboard they are willing to move prime young talent up front for defense. And they are young enough where the cap hit isn't bad. You referenced the lack of depth on D but from this seat having Weber, Jones, Franson et al is overkill and the Preds would be better off dealing for some firepower up front. It might be time to trade Weber let Jones develop into your 1A with the other kids and maybe a Jordan Eberle or Nail Yakupov or Ryan Nugent Hopkins in the fold. 

 

I wondered the same thing about Forsberg for awhile, but I think wing is his natural position.  He hasn't really played Center in years, and outside of a few runs in practice, I don't think the Preds have given him much consideration there.  He has the size/hands/acumen to likely play it, but I have no clue how he'd fare on face-offs....and I think he does better finishing plays than setting them up (though he has shown some pretty ridiculous passing) and seems very defensively sound.  Just a great, young player overall honestly with a sick wrister.  


As for our D- we lost Franson once the season ended.  Still waiting to see where he'll end up, but we signed Jackman from The Blues (a better pair with Jones, IMO) to compensate.  Edmonton does seem like a good trade partner, but only if we're both willing to deal our bigs.  I don't think they'd come off RNH unless Jones/Weber was involved, and even then, fan feedback on both camps suggest neither side is willing/ready to move without one side getting shafted in value.  Ribeiro is more than adequate for us this season, but I really worry about his desire (I could see him falling off on a whim) and he's at best likely 3 seasons out from retirement.  Granted, 3 years can be a long time in a sport, but that's why I was eyeing a lesser piece from Edmonton - Draisaitl, the C they drafted last year that they rushed into the lineup too early but dominated again when sent down to the minors.  The Preds have the spare parts to deal out a top 6 winger and 2nd pair D-man to get him, and since they have RNH/McDavid in their longterm plans - it seems he's a square peg in their system for now and the foreseeable future.  I thought we could get him on a decent trade, let him marinate for a season or two, and hopefully move him up in our lines when age caught up on Ribs/Fisher....but, as per usual, Poile seems to be happy having a logjam at defense/middle-line forwards as opposed to really evening out the team, front to back, for the longterm.  

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Oh, and CTF you'll likely appreciate this longterm conundrum the Preds have, as it's a weird mix of having things too good on one front and potentially being punished by it.  

Weber's deal, though getting team friendlier by the year, is still a shit-ton of money, and will be, until it ends.  And to boot, if he retires early, it screws our cap, quite significantly, for the remainder of it's duration.  Meaning, if he's not happy (either here, or anywhere he'd waive his NTC to go in a trade and decides to hang em up), it could hurt the team for awhile.

Forsberg has to get paid next year.  Unless he regresses, which of course we don't want, he's likely looking at a smaller, yet similar deal to what Taranseko just signed, 7.5 average for 8 years.  Of course, we have to re-sign him.  I don't see him going anywhere.

Jones also has to get paid next year.  Everyone in the NHL knows he'll be a star, yet he's on a peculiar situation where he's only getting 2nd/3rd line ice-time.  With us last season, he typically played 3rd line minutes as Ellis/Ekholm was a damn good 2nd pair, though he did sub in 1st line minutes when Weber went out with injury.  So, we have a kid who everyone knows would/should be at worst a 2nd line player in 95% of other teams and realistically a first pair in probably a third of the league, who is inching closer to his ceiling as a legit 1st liner with every month, yet he's getting protected minutes here and as messed up as it sounds, is very likely between our 3rd and 5th best Defensemen (depending on who you ask) at this moment.  But, you know he'll want paid next year similar to what his upside/draft position would indicate, and he may likely get it from us, but even still, he's not touching that top line anytime soon if the roster stays as is.


Will be interesting to see how they handle the Jones situation next year, as a lot of money will naturally be going to Weber/Rinne/Forsberg.  I don't know that we can afford to pay him what's fair with the role he'd be playing on the team.  Wouldn't be shocked at all if a move is made with either him or Weber by next offseason.  In a way, it simply doesn't make sense for us to have both after this season.  

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The other thing you can learn form the Lerfs saga is getting your elite goal scoring winger prior to your 1A centre is cart before the horse. 

 

You don;t build a team around an elite goal scoring winger but you do build a team around a 1A centerman. Kessel was Patrick Kane without Jonathon Toews. Tyler Bozak was his centre for cripes sakes. Corey Perry has Ryan Getzlaf. Even Ovechkin has Backstrom who is on a whole other level than a guy like Bozak.  And I know that those guys don't; always play together but they do a lot and always on power plays. 

 

I think that really puts Phil's production in a whole other light. He has out pointed Patrick Kane over the last few years and look who Kane plays with. I think you could really see on Team USA Kessel was the most dangerous guy out there. 

 

Re Pittsburgh depth: It's very possible they wlll put Kessel, Crosby and Malkin on different lines. This means the Penguins will now have 3 very dangerous lines. Because you can pair all those guys up with slugs and they're going to produce. I think you'll mostly see those guys play together on the power play. Not sure about team defense though!

 

Merc - what about Forsberg as the future 1A centre? I know that going back to his draft year there were some that said he projected better as a winger? Where/how did he finish off last year with the Preds?

 

As I said awhile ago, I think the perfect trade partner for the Preds is Edmonton. With McDavid aboard they are willing to move prime young talent up front for defense. And they are young enough where the cap hit isn't bad. You referenced the lack of depth on D but from this seat having Weber, Jones, Franson et al is overkill and the Preds would be better off dealing for some firepower up front. It might be time to trade Weber let Jones develop into your 1A with the other kids and maybe a Jordan Eberle or Nail Yakupov or Ryan Nugent Hopkins in the fold. 

Im out of my league here, but the Preds had a chance to win a Stanley Cup if Weber was healthy. They took the champs to a game six, up two goals twice in the first, after being up 3-0 in another game, and their defense lost it for them. Giving away their best player definitely isn't going to happen. 

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You don't get better by trading Shea Weber but the picture Merc paints it tells me it's definitely in the best long term interest of the org right now to trade him. 

 

And I mean the package that Weber would get you back in return would be enormous and you have you're 1A guy in Jones there at some point anyway and if anything Weber might be stalling Jones' progress at this point because he probably should start getting 25-30 minutes per night and that's not going to happen with Weber there.

 

The problem with trading Weber is cap related. The only way a team can get Weber under their cap is to send big salary back the other way which is counter intuitive to the Preds need to create space to sign their young guys and keep adding pieces up front. 

 

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As a fan of the team during the rough years, it would hurt to see Weber go as he's meant a lot to the team as a player and the franchise as a representative of our ability to draft/develop truly elite talent, especially after Suter gave us the middle finger and we came oh so close to losing both in the same offseason.  That being said, with or without Weber on the roster we likely have a 2-3 year window now where we could compete for a Cup then go through a rebuild regardless of whether a move is made on the Weber/Jones front.  Obviously having him on roster gets us closer to winning it all, but a rebuild is likely imminent regardless.  In 3 years, assuming no prospects completely surpass their expectations - we're looking at losing our two topline centers and Rinne would be 35 years old, 36 after a couple months into the season.  Trades, FA, and the aforementioned development could alleviate that, but you have to move quality assets to get quality assets, and outside of Ribs (which was a flukey situation in itself) I don't foresee many topline centers being available or foaming at the mouth to come here on what would likely be a regressing team.  

But, with moving Weber, we may suffer a bit this year as Jones gets acclimated to top pairing minutes....but I don't think the dropoff would monumental.  Realistically, there's no way a Malkin/Tavares/Stamkos comes back our way, even as elite as Weber is, but it's very realistic a Galenchyuk, Draisaitl, Marner (really like the pick for you guys, btw),  Monahan (though doubtful Calgary would be trading partners) type talent + a 1st round draft pick, + another roster player (maybe 3rd line RH defense) could come back.  Hell, maybe even another draft pick and/or prospect.  An elite, established C is going to be untouchable in most trades, but developing/potentially elite guys would be pretty good gets too, and we do have a situation where they could marinate and not be rushed into playing above their heads for the next couple of seasons.

Shea Weber for:

Potentially elite C prospect (that should be topline ready by maybe 2017/18)

+2016 1st round pick + 2017 2nd round pick

+ Roster defenseman (to fill the void Jones leaves by moving up the lines)

Would be pretty tempting.  Another pick/prospect added to that and personally I'd pull the trigger.  We could even retain some salary this year as we're still under the floor.

It would sting to see Weber walk, but our team could be loaded as a result of that trade if Forsberg, Fiala, Kamenev, Arvidsson, and Saros develop into what they're projected.  

 

 

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But how does a team trading young cheap talent Galchenyuk, Drasaiti and Marner fit Weber under their cap? 

 

In the leafs case (hypothetically speaking because the Leafs are in full rebuild mode and aren't looking for this kind of trade), the Preds would almost certainly have to take Phaneuf from the Leafs just so the Leafs could get Weber under the cap. 

 

I think the Preds have a much better chance to trade Weber for significant NHL vet assets, than cheap young talent, because of the cap issues. Weber has one of the biggest cap hits in the NHL. 

 

But who knows, I would have said the same thing about the Pens fitting Kessel under the cap but they got it done. I have not been following the NHL closely and I have no idea how the Pens cleared the cap space for that. 

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Weber's Cap hit this year is 7.8.  Nashville could afford to retain 2-3 million of that and a returned roster player (say the defensman to take over for Jones) could be anywhere from another million or two off the table from the team receiving him, bringing it down pretty easily to around 5-6 million.  Not ideal, but certainly doable just with those moves, and  I'm sure we could take on a salary dump player as a throw in if such a trade was actually negotiated and there were still cap concerns.  Even if we retain both Wilson and Smith longterm (which I doubt), we'd have a few million in wiggle room to make it work for the other team.  

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I still think you take one more shot at it next year. I'm convinced we take the Hawks to 7 if Weber wasn't injured, and that was with Fish out as well. We've never had a roster/staff mix that could actually compete for a Stanley Cup. I don't see any reason to start a rebuild when we can legitimately contend right now. Merc does lay out a good scenario, so I wouldn't be mad if it happened, but I don't think it should. Give the team at least one more go round to see if they can pull off something special. 

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Out of all the major 4 sports Hockey is the one most likely to have a team win the championship in spite of not having as much talent as several other teams...

 

A hot goalie, slumping stars on the other team, injuries, puck luck, etc...

 

So it;s not impossible for a team like the Preds to win a Stanley Cup....but it is very unlikely because at the end of the day they do not have the firepower up front to compete with the best teams in the NHL. Not even close. This has been an ongoing story basically since the Preds came into the league and Poile can't seem to fix it. 

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