10-Team, Standard Scoring Draft Strategy

[Cyrus]

I'm drafting for another league on Saturday and the preseason bumps to some running backs has really thrown a wrench into my draft strategy. I'm picking 6th and my general approach for the last few weeks in mock drafts has been to go RB/WR/RB/WR in the first four rounds. Obviously that changes depending on who's actually there, but generally speaking that yielded me the following:

 

1st Round : Alfred Morris (I'm particularly high on him - and I feel he's very safe).

2nd Round: A.J. Green, Dez Bryant or Brandon Marshall (More recently, A.J. Green).

3rd Round: Chris Johnson or Stevan Ridley.

4th Round: Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Bowe or Colston. 

 

In cases where Johnson or Ridley were off the board in the 3rd round, I would typically grab another WR (Larry Fitzgerald, typically) and take Frank Gore in the 4th round who was often there.

 

Now, in recent drafts since the first two preseason games, running backs have gone several picks earlier with Chris Johnson and Stevan Ridley going in the second round or very early third round before I pick leaving me with few palatable options outside of Larry Fitzgerald, Demaryius Thomas or very occasionally Jimmy Graham (who I promptly scoop up at that value). I'm hesitant to take Frank Gore in the third round over some other options and I don't want to chase a position group that lacks value (sometimes Gore isn't even there). For the most part, my recent mock drafts have looked like this:

 

1st Round: Alfred Morris

2nd Round: AJ Green or Brandon Marshall

3rd Round: Larry Fitzgerald or Demaryius Thomas

4th Round: Reggie Bush or another WR2 in my WR3 slot.

 

In cases where Reggie Bush isn't available in the 4th round I've opted to wait until the 5th round to see if I can take DeMarco Murray who is a good value there (with his injury history baked into his ADP). However, he's occasionally not there either. Even in cases where I take Bush or Murray I like to grab as many high-upside RB prospects later as lottery tickets (Wilson if possible in the 5th-6th, Lacy in the 7th-8th, Montee Ball in the 8th-9th or so). This is obviously impacted on the availability of some QBs or TEs. (Gronk or Brady if they're hanging around in the 6th round).

 

So the question is this, should I re-consider taking a running back in the 2nd round at the expense of a WR who's likely to finish in the Top 5 at their position? Based on my position, I would have to be the first to pull the trigger on the Forte/Steven Jackson/Chris Johnson/Stevan Ridley tier or risk a sketchy RB2 if things don't fall my way later. (As a note, I'm not really high on Steven Jackson or Forte).

 

If I take a WR in the 2nd round I feel like I have the possibility of being very fortunate if Ridley or a similar RB2 falls my way in the 3rd Round. Chris Johnson will be gone at that point based on my brother-in-law rankings (which we discuss daily) and there's a lot of 49er fans in this league too so Gore is out of the question in the fourth. I don't hate the idea of taking Ridley or Chris Johnson in the 2nd round but I feel like I'm leaving a lot of potential value on the table.

 

And another note, I like Graham a lot, but I'm not willing to take him in the 2nd round. He has to be 100% healthy and have a career year (or close) to perform to that draft spot. I think he can do it, but I don't like the risk. Never bet for or on a career year. 

 

@Jamalisms, others?

[Jamalisms]

@Dmeade-

[Jamalisms]

Let me do some mocks and see what I think. Multi-round strategy is a complex question.

[Cyrus]

Let me do some mocks and see what I think. Multi-round strategy is a complex question.

 

Definitely has me racking my brain. The most difficult part is that it only started happening recently. I imagine it's due to a change in rankings by Yahoo after the preseason reactions. My instinct is to keep going value and take Green or Marshall in the 2nd round and hope that the 3rd / 4th rounds break well for me.

[Jamalisms]

Preseason performances and injuries are definitely affecting things.

[Cyrus]

@Jamalisms

 

So let's simplify things a bit. Do Chris Johnson or Ridley have value with the 15th pick? They're likely being overdrafted there based on current ADP, but not significantly so. Here are my respective issues with each:

 

Chris Johnson: I think the scheme and personnel upgrades upfront should yield a tangible improvement for Chris Johnson. I like him this year, but what I'm concerned about is the Greene timeshare which is very real. This isn't an issue with him being an effective RB2 - I think he does so easily. It does however limit his upside / ceiling, making him a bit less enticing. I think his catches go up as well which should off-set some carries lost to Greene, but the TDs could remain <10. 

 

Stevan Ridley: It's the week to week inconsistency that really bothers me. Sure, at the end of the year he will likely be the 10th to 14th running back overall, but there's likely to be some weeks where he's taken out of the game-plan almost entirely. Plus, his receiving ability is basically nil and likely to remain there which hurts the possibility of him being effective when the run-game is ineffective. I don't mind that for a 3rd round RB, but I think his ceiling is highly capped by these issues. He could easily hit 16 TDs though, but I don't think it's as likely as some think. (Brady will nearly always be effective in the red-zone so I don't think they lean on Ridley as much as some think). Week to week opportunities really irk me. He will win me some games with 20+ points after 80+ yards and 2 TDs, but will sink me others with <50 yards and no TDs.

 

So in sum, I'm leaning towards Chris Johnson in the 2nd round because he's more likely to get opportunities (carries or catches) on a more consistent basis even if Greene eats into his snaps. I also think the Titans will be more efficient running the ball. I think 1,100-1,300 rushing yards and 250-350 receiving yards aren't out of the question. However, he's likely to be capped at 8 TDs. If he were to accomplish that - he would be a bottom end RB1 which is pretty good returns on the 15th pick but not overwhelmingly so. 

[Jamalisms]

PPR or no?

[Cyrus]

PPR or no?

 

Standard scoring. Although with one caveat I neglected to mention. There's bonus points for explosive plays. +1 for 40 yard+ receptions or TDs and +2 for 40 yard+ rushing attempts or TDs. I think that benefits Chris Johnson far more than Ridley, but doesn't necessarily differentiate AJ Green from Chris Johnson. 

 

The other X-Factor here is the psychology of the draft. If I take Chris Johnson early, it's very possible that I create a run on the next tier of RBs. I know a 49ers homer will scramble to take Gore in the late second or early third and I know that it will force someone to take Ridley/MJD/Forte/Jackson earlier than they might have wanted to. This might push a more attractive WR to me in the 3rd round.

[Jamalisms]

Not the answer you're looking for there but I would consider MJD there as well. I think he was leading the NFL in rushing yards before the injury. I wouldn't want to end up with Gore. I still like the guy but it's just a matter of time before he really is done/replaced. It's like russian roulette taking a guy like that.

[Cyrus]

Not the answer you're looking for there but I would consider MJD there as well. I think he was leading the NFL in rushing yards before the injury. I wouldn't want to end up with Gore. I still like the guy but it's just a matter of time before he really is done/replaced. It's like russian roulette taking a guy like that.

 

MJD is basically on my "let someone else draft him" list. I would take him in the 3rd round, but won't touch him in the 2nd round where I think he's overvalued. I don't have that type of appetite for risk. His ceiling is probably as high as Chris Johnson but his floor is much lower, in my opinion. 

 

As for Gore, I would take him in the fourth round where I think he's a rock solid RB2 (performs between 14th-16th by the end of the year). He's playing behind a very effective run-blocking OL which should improve his longevity. Plus they're a rushing dominant team so he's going to get carries in the red-zone (there's no RB on their roster that would challenge him for that role). 

[Jamalisms]

I also like Forte a bit. It's really hard to answer without seeing exactly how the draft has fallen. I think that I'd take what I consider to be a guaranteed WR before a second rate RB... provided there is a good chance that another second rate RB is there at the third round. Even if it isn't my favorite second rate RB, that would seem to be the better option. I'd then go a bit earlier on RB backups if I didn't like the guy I landed in round 3. Alternatively, if every WR but Megatron is still on the board in round 2 and I can pick a RB2 I truly like, I might try and hit on that and hope a good WR or two falls to me.

 

It's just really dependent on the exact draft fall. Sometimes your draft position kills you.

[Cyrus]

I also like Forte a bit. It's really hard to answer without seeing exactly how the draft has fallen. I think that I'd take what I consider to be a guaranteed WR before a second rate RB... provided there is a good chance that another second rate RB is there at the third round. Even if it isn't my favorite second rate RB, that would seem to be the better option. I'd then go a bit earlier on RB backups if I didn't like the guy I landed in round 3. Alternatively, if every WR but Megatron is still on the board in round 2 and I can pick a RB2 I truly like, I might try and hit on that and hope a good WR or two falls to me.

 

It's just really dependent on the exact draft fall. Sometimes your draft position kills you.

 

Based on my draft position, it's highly unlikely there's a second rate RB there. Unless you consider Reggie Bush a second rate RB. I'm really getting pinched there. 

[Dmeade-]

I agree with Jamal. I don't think you can pass up aj green, Marshall, etc. for Ridley or Johnson. That being said, Ridley is definitely the safe pick over Johnson for the time share possibilities stated above and CJ's inconsistencies.. If you are picking 6th though, I'm taking someone other than Morris (Doug Martin, Richardson, McCoy, Rice).

An ideal draft for me at 6th would be

Martin

WR

CJ/Ridley/Steven Jackson

[wiscotitansfan]

Alternatively, if every WR but Megatron is still on the board in round 2 and I can pick a RB2 I truly like, I might try and hit on that and hope a good WR or two falls to me.

 

I would disagree with this just because if the only WR was taken was Megatron it is highly unlikely the RB2 you want is still on the board. You would start the run on WRs and most likely have a similar crop of RBs to choose from.

 

On the other hand, if you wait for round 3 if this is the scenario you have a chance to be even thinner at runningback choices and have to take a RB3 as your other starter.

[Cyrus]

I'm leaning towards taking a WR there in the 2nd round and hoping for the best. My contingency is to reach on someone like Eddie Lacy in the mid rounds if necessary (I have a lot of confidence in him). I also feel pretty confident with Reggie Bush if he's there in the 4th round. I just don't want to go chasing a position when there's not value.

 

I agree with Jamal. I don't think you can pass up aj green, Marshall, etc. for Ridley or Johnson. That being said, Ridley is definitely the safe pick over Johnson for the time share possibilities stated above and CJ's inconsistencies.. If you are picking 6th though, I'm taking someone other than Morris (Doug Martin, Richardson, McCoy, Rice).

 

I love Morris. I think he's the real deal. I don't think he finishes Top 3 (although he could), but his floor is very, very high. He's going to be a consistent player for me week to week.